中国反贫困政策的减贫效应研究:来自国家扶贫改革试验区的经验证据

Research on the Poverty Reduction Effect of China's Anti-Poverty Policy:Empirical Evidence from the National Poverty Alleviation Reform Pilot Zones

我国脱贫攻坚战虽已取得全面胜利,但相对贫困依然存在,还需巩固脱贫攻坚成果,并与乡村振兴战略有效衔接。2013年和2015年设立的“国家扶贫改革试验区”旨在为进一步完善开发式反贫困政策、推进乡村振兴和帮扶提供示范经验,因而检验该政策效果并从中提取经验对于健全帮扶工作具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。选取广东省、浙江省、江苏省、山东省、福建省五省2001年—2020年308个区县(县级市)的面板数据,使用双重差分法(DID)识别“国家扶贫改革试验区”的设立对地区增长的促进作用。研究发现,“国家扶贫改革试验区”的设立显著促进了县区经济发展,经过多种识别假定检验和稳健性检验后该结论依然成立。进一步研究表明,这一政策对周边邻近地区会产生正向溢出效应,异质性分析得出该政策对少数民族区县的经济拉动作用大于非少数民族区县,财政依赖程度越高的区县该政策效果越明显,分省份进行检验后发现江苏和浙江的政策效果要强于福建和山东。此外机制检验表明,“国家扶贫改革试验区”的设立通过产业帮扶和提高农民收入水平的方式来间接推动当地经济发展。

Although China has won a comprehensive victory in the battle against poverty,relative poverty still exists,and it is necessary to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation and effectively link them with the rural revitalization strategy.The"National Poverty Alleviation Reform Pilot Zones"established in 2013 and 2015 aim to provide demonstration experience for further improving development-oriented anti-poverty policies and promoting rural revitalization and assistance.As a result,testing the effect of the policy and extracting experience from it has important theoretical value and practical significance for improving assistance work.The Selection of the panel data of 308 districts and counties(county-level cities)in Guangdong,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Shandong and Fujian provinces from 2001 to 2020,together with use of the DID-difference method(DID)to identify of the establishment of"poverty alleviation reform pilot zones"yields promotion effect on regional growth.It is found that the establishment of"National Poverty Alleviation Reform Pilot Zones"has significantly promoted the economic development of counties and districts,and the conclusion is still valid after a variety of identification hypothesis tests and robustness tests.Further research shows that this policy will have a positive spillover effect on neighboring areas.Heterogeneity analysis shows that this policy has a greater economic driving effect on ethnic minority areas and counties than non-ethnic minority areas and counties with a higher degree of financial dependence have a more obvious effect.After testing by province,it is found that Jiangsu and Zhejiang have stronger effect than Fujian and Shandong.In addition,the mechanism test shows that the establishment of the"National Poverty Alleviation Reform Pilot Zones"indirectly promotes the local economic development by helping the industry and raising the income level of farmers.