新基建投资与新型城镇化发展耦合协调的时空演化研究

Spatiotemporal evolution of the coupling coordination betweennew infrastructure investment and new urbanization development

基于新基建投资和新型城镇化发展的耦合机制构建指标体系,应用熵权法对评价指标进行赋权,并结合耦合协调度评价模型、空间自相关模型和标准差椭圆模型,探索我国内地30个省(自治区、直辖市)2013—2020年新基建投资与新型城镇化发展的耦合协调状态并揭示其时空演化特征。结果表明:新基建投资和新型城镇化发展的综合指数从2013年的0.104、0.234分别升至0.177、0.363;新基建投资和新型城镇化发展的耦合协调度持续上升,但区域之间存在明显的差异,呈由东至西递减的分布格局;研究期内的Moran’s I指数波动上升,耦合协调度具有显著的空间正相关性;标准差椭圆重心呈现向西南方向小幅度迁移趋势且椭圆的面积不断减小,说明耦合协调度呈集聚收敛发展的态势。因此应继续加强宏观调控,强化东部沿海地区的区域带动作用,以进一步实现新基建和新型城镇化的协同发展。

Based on the coupling mechanism between new infrastructure investment and new urbanization development,an indicator system is constructed and the evaluation indicators are weighted by using the entropy weight method.The coupling coordination degree evaluation model,spatial autocorrelation model and standard deviation ellipse model are used to investigate the coupling and coordination between new infrastructure investment and new urbanization development in 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)from 2013 to 2020.The results show that:the composite indexes of new infrastructure investment and new urbanization development increased from 0.104 and 0.234 in 2013 to 0.177 and 0.363 respectively;the degree of the coupling coordination between new infrastructure investment and new urbanization development continues to rise,but there are obvious differences between regions,showing a decreasing pattern from east to west;during the study period,the fluctuation of Moran’s I index increased,and the coupling coordination degree had a significant positive spatial correlation;the standard deviation elliptic center of gravity migrates slightly towards the southwest and the area of ellipse decreases continuously.The coupling coordination degree shows a trend of agglomeration and convergence.Therefore,we should continue to strengthen the macro-control and the regional driving role of the eastern coastal areas,so as to further realize the coordinated development of new infrastructure and new urbanization.