基于灵活性调节资源动态演变的储能容量预测

PREDICTION OF ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY BASED ON FLEXIBLE REGULATION OF RESOURCE DYNAMIC EVOLUTION

基于储能的灵活性调节能力是新型电力系统稳定运行的重要增量,其容量预测与配置受多种因素制约。针对能源结构转型背景下面临的因储能容量需求动态变化而难以预测,进而影响源网荷储协调规划建设的问题,该文分析电力系统灵活性调节能力的影响因素,研究包括火电、水电、储能等各灵活性调节资源的装机容量以及调节成本的发展趋势,并对火电机组深度调峰成本进行分段线性化处理,降低计算的复杂度,以获得灵活性调节容量的成本最低为优化目标,综合考虑各调节资源的能量、功率约束,建立储能容量预测模型,并将其转换为混合整数线性规划的形式,调用商业优化求解器CPLEX进行求解。该模型基于系统中现有调节资源的调节能力,在目前新能源发电量占比不断增大的情况下,对储能的容量进行预测。算例分析表明所提模型能在保证系统经济运行的前提下,对储能的容量进行动态预测,所配置的储能有效促进了风电和光伏的消纳。

The flexibility regulation capacity based on energy storage is an important increment for the stable operation of new power systems,and its capacity prediction and allocation are constrained by various factors.To address the problem of difficult to predict the dynamic change of energy storage capacity demand in the context of energy structure transformation,which in turn affects the coordinated planning and construction of source-grid-load-storage,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of power system flexibility regulation capacity,studies the installed capacity of each flexibility regulation resource including thermal power,hydropower,and energy storage as well as the development trend of regulation cost,and carries out segmental linearization of the deep ly peaking cost of thermal power units in order to reduce the complexity of the calculation.Taking the lowest cost of flexible regulation capacity as the optimization objective,the energy and power constraints of each regulation resource are considered comprehensively,and an energy storage capacity prediction model is established.The model is converted to the form of mixed integer linear programming.which is solved by calling the commercial optimization solver CPLEX.The model is based on the regulation capacity of the existing regulation resources in the system and considers that with the increasing proportion of new energy generation,the energy storage capacity is predicted.The analysis shows that the proposed model can make dynamic prediction of the capacity of energy storage under the premise of ensuring the economic operation of the system,and the allocated energy storage can effectively promote the consumption of wind power and photovoltaic.