黄河流域生态保护政策促进“双碳”目标实现的影响机制与政策作用力仿真——基于DEMATEL-AISM和机器学习模型

The Impact Mechanism and Policy Effectiveness Simulation of Ecological Protection Policies in the Yellow River Basin on Achieving the“Dual Carbon”Goals:Based on DEMATEL-AISM and Machine Learning Models

生态保护政策在促进黄河流域“双碳”目标实现方面发挥着重要作用,探究其影响机制,可为“双碳”目标下黄河流域的生态保护政策制定与执行提供参考和指导。采用DEMATEL-ASIM方法构建影响机制模型,并引入机器学习算法,完成生态保护政策对“双碳”目标实现的作用力仿真。研究发现:①黄河流域生态保护政策促进“双碳”目标实现的影响机制是涵盖了触发因素、中介因素、驱动因素和结果因素的多层级复杂系统,其中生态保护政策制定强度和执行强度是影响机制中的关键影响因素,而碳排放规模和生态碳汇能力间的影响因素因果联结构成了影响机制的“传导径流”;②在政策作用力仿真中,生态保护政策制定与执行强度对“双碳”目标实现的影响具有异质性、非线性正面响应效应、“触底-反弹”现象和“天花板”效应,黄河流域上中下游地区应该选择差异化的政策制定和执行强度组合方案。

Ecological protection policies play a crucial role in promoting the realization of the“dual carbon”goals in the Yellow River Basin.Exploring their impact mechanism can provide reference and guidance for the formulation and implementation of ecological protection policies in the Yellow River Basin under the“dual carbon”goals.This study employs the DEMATEL-ASIM method to construct an impact mechanism model and introduces machine learning algorithms to simulate the effectiveness of ecological protection policies on achieving the“dual carbon”goals.The findings reveal that:①The impact mechanism of ecological protection policies in the Yellow River Basin on promoting the realization of the“dual carbon”goals is a complex multi-level system encompassing trigger factors,mediating factors,driving factors,and outcome factors.The formulation intensity and implementation intensity of ecological protection policies are key influencing factors in the impact mechanism,while the causal linkages between carbon emission scale and ecological carbon sequestration capacity constitute the“conductive pathway”of the impact mechanism.②In the policy effectiveness simulation,the formulation and implementation intensity of ecological protection policies exhibit heterogeneous,non-linear positive response effects,“bottom-rebound”phenomena,and“ceiling”effects on the realization of the“dual carbon”goals.The upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin should adopt differentiated policy formulation and implementation intensity combination schemes.