2024上半年中国化肥市场形势回顾和后期展望

Review of China's Fertilizer Market Situation in the First Half of 2024 and Outlook for the Later Period

化肥作为作物的“粮食”,其市场供应对稳定农业生产、保障国家粮食安全具有关键作用。科学研判化肥市场形势,对于推动化肥产业高质量发展具有重要意义。2024年上半年国际化肥市场价格波动运行;国内化肥市场供应总体充足,春耕用肥有保障;国内化肥价格波动走低但仍处于高位;化肥累计进口量同比增加,出口量同比减少。后期夏季用肥基本结束,秋冬用肥需求增加;企业检修陆续复工复产,市场供应基本面供大于求,秋冬用肥供应总体有保障;预计后期化肥价格总体平稳,部分肥种价格或小幅上涨。后期需关注的问题是化肥原料价格仍较高、环保政策变化与产能调整的压力和国际市场波动带来的风险。基于此,应从建立健全煤炭等价格稳定机制、推动环保政策落实见效、鼓励产能优化调整和加强国内外市场动态监测等方面促进化肥产业高质量发展。

As the"food"of crops,fertilizer plays a key role in stabilizing agricultural production and ensuring national food security.It is of great significance for the scientific research and assessment of the fertilizer market situation to promote the fertilizer industry high-quality development.In the first half of 2024 international fertilizer prices continue to fluctuate;the domestic fertilizer market supply is generally sufficient,the spring ploughing fertilizer is guaranteed;domestic fertilizer price fluctuation is lower,but still at a high level;the cumulative import of fertilizer increased and the export decreased year-on-year.In the later period,fertilizer use in summer basically ended,and the demand for fertilizer in autumn and winter increased.The enterprise maintenance is resumed one by one,and the supply fundamentals of the market exceed the demand,thus autumn and winter fertilizer supply is generally guaranteed;fertilizer prices are expected to be generally stable in the late period,some fertilizer prices may rise slightly.In the later stage,we should pay attention to the high price of fertilizer raw materials,the pressure of environmental protection policy change and capacity adjustment,and the risk of international market fluctuation.Based on this,the high-quality development of chemical fertilizer industry should be promoted from the aspects of establishing and perfecting the price stabilization mechanism such as coal,promoting the implementation of environmental protection policies,encouraging the optimization and adjustment of production capacity,and strengthening the dynamic monitoring of domestic and foreign markets.