中国城市技术多样化的时空演变特征与驱动力研究

Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors Technological Variety in Chinese Cities

基于2006—2020年中国城市的面板数据,利用核密度估计、重心-标准差椭圆、地理探测器等方法对技术相关、非相关多样化的时空演变特征及驱动因素进行分析。结果表明:2006—2020年中国城市技术相关、非相关多样化水平均呈上升趋势,相关多样化水平上升得较快;技术相关多样化呈分异态势,而技术非相关多样化呈趋同态势。技术相关多样化呈高值集聚的空间趋势,分布重心向西南方向移动;技术非相关多样化呈不规则分布的空间趋势,分布重心向西北方向移动。创新投入是技术相关多样化发展的核心驱动因素,市场规模是技术非相关多样化发展的核心驱动因素。

Based on the panel data of Chinese cities from 2006 to 2020,this paper analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of technology-related and unrelated variety by using the methods of kernel density estimation,center of gravity and standard deviation ellipse,and Geodetector.Results show that the levels of technology-related and unrelated variety both show an increasing trend,but related variety increases faster than unrelated variety.The technology-related variety shows a trend of differentiation,while the technology-unrelated variety shows a trend of convergence.The technology-related variety shows a spatial trend of high value agglomeration,and the distribution center moves to the southwest.The technological-unrelated variety shows a spatial trend of irregular distribution,and the center of gravity of distribution moves to the northwest.Innovation investment is the core driving factor for the development of technology-related variety,while market size is the core driving factor for the development of technology-unrelated variety.