京津冀产业结构演进的碳减排灵敏度分析

Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Sensitivity of Industrial Structure Evolution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

以产业结构优化助推京津冀稳增长与碳达峰目标协同并进为研究目的,运用岭回归探究京津冀产业结构演进的碳减排灵敏度并筛选调控路径,预测减排潜力,验证协同减排效应。结果表明:(1)提升第一产业比例及第二、三产业劳均产出有助于北京、天津提前碳达峰;提升第二产业比例及劳均产出有助于河北提前碳达峰。(2)北京、河北调控后的减排潜力显著提升,说明两地可协调推进增长和减排,天津则难以协调。2030年后,京津冀调控后的减排潜力在50%以上,说明降低碳强度主要依托于产业结构演进。(3)随着京津冀产业结构高度协同演进,产业协同趋势显著,能源消费碳排放量呈倒“U”型趋势,优化京津冀产业结构高度可为区域协同减排赋能增效。

In order to optimize the industrial structure and promote the coordinated progress of stable growth and carbon peak in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,this paper used ridge regression to explore the emission reduction sensitivity of industrial structure evolution,screen the regulation path,predict the emission reduction potential,and verify the synergistic emission reduction effect.The results show that:(1)Increasing the proportion of the primary industry and the average labor output of the secondary and tertiary industries will help Beijing and Tianjin reach the peak ahead of time;Increasing the proportion of the secondary industry and the output per labor will help Hebei reach the peak in advance.(2)The emission reduction potential of Beijing and Hebei has been significantly improved after regulation,which indicates that the two places can promote growth and emission reduction in a coordinated manner,while Tianjin is difficult to coordinate.After 2030,the emission reduction potential of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region after regulation is more than 50%,indicating that the reduction of carbon intensity mainly depends on the evolution of industrial structure.(3)With the highly coordinated evolution of industries in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the trend of industrial coordination is significant,and the carbon emissions from energy consumption show an inverted“U”trend.