中国人口家庭化流动模式变迁:“延续”还是“突变”

Changing patterns of family migration in China:“Continuation”or“mutation”?

新型城镇化背景下,准确把握家庭化流动模式的变迁对于认识中国人口迁移流动演变规律和推动城镇化高质量发展具有重要意义。论文基于2012年和2018年中国流动人口动态监测数据,利用描述性分析和多层多项Logit回归模型,对中国人口家庭化流动的特征及其影响因素的变化进行分析。研究发现:①流动人口的平均家庭规模正不断扩大,家庭化流动已经并将长期占据主导地位;家庭化流动模式变迁呈现出延续性,表现为半家庭化流动的下降和完整家庭化流动的上升。②随着时间的推移,人口家庭化流动的过程也更为复杂,流动人口家庭团聚需要更多的流动批次才能实现;家庭规模越大、家庭化流动程度越完整,所需流动批次越多。③模型结果表明,家庭化流动受到流动人口特征和流入城市特征的共同影响。流动人口个体及家庭特征、流动特征等一直是影响家庭化流动的重要因素;城市特征层面,城市社会经济发展水平的影响随时间推移而发生了从不显著向正向显著的重要转变;此外,完整家庭化流动一直受到城市住房市场状况和公共服务水平的影响,半家庭化流动则主要受到城市等级的影响。

Under the background of the new type urbanization,accurately grasping the changes in family migration patterns is of great significance for understanding the pattern of change of migration in China and promoting high-quality development of urbanization.Based on the data from the 2012 and 2018 China Migrant Dynamic Survey and related statistics of cities,this study analyzed the characteristics of family migration and influencing factors by using descriptive analysis and multi-level regression models.The results show that:1)The average size of migrant population households is increasing,and family migration has been and will continue to be the dominant form of migration for a significant period of time.2)Changes in the patterns of family migration have mainly manifested in the decline in semi-family migration and the emergence of complete family migration,demonstrating a trend of continuity.3)Over time,the process of family migration has become more complex,and the reunion of the migrant population's family members requires more batches of migration;the larger the family size and the more complete the family migration is,the more batches of migration are required to achieve family reunion.The modeling results show that the characteristics of both the destination areas and the migrant population at the individual level affect family migration patterns.Individual and family characteristics of the migrant population and their mobility characteristics have always been important factors that influence family migration;at the city level,the influence of the level of urban socioeconomic development has undergone an important shift from insignificant to positively significant over time.In addition,complete family migration has always been affected by the conditions of the urban housing market and the level of public services,while semi-family migration has been mainly influenced by the rank of the city in the urban hierarchy.