干旱区绿洲乡村地域系统韧性演化与适应对策——以甘肃省张掖市甘州区为例

Change in resilience and adaptation strategies of oasis rural regional system in arid areas:Taking Ganzhou District as an example

多重因素干扰下加强干旱区绿洲乡村地域系统韧性演化与适应对策研究有利于区域农业农村可持续发展。针对既有乡村韧性研究不能充分体现乡村动态演化特征、较少关注尺度效应和空间类型差异的缺陷,论文以黑河中游绿洲甘州区为例,分别构建了县域适应韧性和乡镇应对韧性测度体系,分析了韧性演化特征和类型差异,提出了不同尺度韧性提升的适应对策。结果表明:①1990年以来县域乡村要素积累的综合效应呈现“S型”曲线演化过程和“橄榄型”年际变化幅度,社会和经济系统稳定性强于生态系统,乡村发展经历了重组—开发初期(1990—2008年)、快速开发—保护(2009—2016年)和保护—释放阶段(2017—2020年),县域适应韧性呈现“缓慢上升—快速增长—停滞增长”的演化特征,生态是韧性提升的主要制约维度;②2011年以来乡镇应对韧性整体波动较大且呈下降趋势,以规模粮食种植和畜牧养殖为主的乡镇抵御风险能力较高,水土资源组合更丰富的乡镇适应调整能力和创新转型能力较强,发展现代规模农业和多功能农业有利于韧性乡村建设,创新转型能力是韧性提升的主要制约维度;③县域尺度加大生态保护修复力度、强化生态保育功能,乡镇尺度优化调整产业结构体系、挖掘要素多元价值,多尺度结合创新水权分配管控制度、提高乡村用水效率是现阶段乡村韧性提升的适应对策。

Strengthening the research on the change in resilience and adaptation strategies of oasis rural regional system in arid areas under the impact of various factors is beneficial for the sustainable development of agriculture and rural areas.In response to the shortcomings of existing research on rural resilience,which cannot fully reflect the dynamic change characteristics of rural regional systems,and pays little attention to the scale effects and spatial type differences,this study took Ganzhou District,Zhangye City,Gansu Province,an oasis area in the middle reaches of the Heihe River as an example to construct the county adaptative resilience and township coping resilience measurement systems,analyze the resilience evolution characteristics and types differences,and propose adaptation countermeasures for improving resilience at different scales.The results show that:1)Since 1990,the cumulative effects of county-level factors of rural areas showed a"S"-shaped process of change and an olive-shaped interannual change amplitude.The stability of social and economic systems is stronger than that of ecosystems.Rural development has gone through the stages of reorganizationearly development(1990-2008),rapid development-protection(2009-2016),and protection-release(2017-2020).The adaptive resilience showed a change of slow rise-rapid growth-stagnant growth,and ecology is the main constraint dimension for resilience improvement.2)Since 2011,the coping resilience of townships has fluctuated greatly and has shown a downward trend.Townships that mainly focused on large-scale grain production and animal husbandry have a higher ability to resist risks,while townships with a combination of richer water and soil resources have stronger adaptability and innovation and transformation capacity.Developing modern large-scale agriculture and multi-functional characteristic agriculture is conducive to the construction of resilient rural areas,and innovation and transformation ability is the main constraint dimension for resilience improvement.3)Increasing ecological protection and restoration efforts in counties,strengthening ecological conservation functions,optimizing and adjusting the industrial structure of townships,exploring the diverse values of factors,innovating water rights allocation and management systems at multiple scales,and improving rural water use efficiency are the key adaptations for enhancing rural resilience at the current stage.