基于改进云物元模型的文物古建火灾风险评估

Fire Risk Assessment on Cultural Relics and Ancient Buildings Based on Improved Cloud Matter-element Model

商业活化利用的文物古建需要进行有效的火灾风险评估,为风险管控措施提供决策支持。通过构建文物古建的火灾风险评估指标体系,采用专家分析法、层次分析法,结合改进云物元模型确定指标权重系数和关联火灾风险等级,并以某商业活化利用的文物古建为例进行验证。结果显示:实例评估结果为Ⅱ级(较低风险),符合专家主观评估结果;在评估过程中,针对评估指标量纲不统一、等级方差不一致,以及在等级边界点评估不准确等问题,分别给出云物元模型的3处改进措施,即归一化评估参数、平均不同等级的方差熵值和修正关联度函数;对比模型修正前后的评估结果,验证了改进云物元模型的风险评估结果更合理准确。

The commercial revitalization and utilization of cultural relics and ancient buildings require the effective fire risk as-sessment to provide the decision-making support for risk management and control measures.By constructing a fire risk as-sessment index system for cultural relics and ancient buildings,expert analysis method,analytic hierarchy process,and im-proved cloud element model are used to determine the weight coefficients of indicators and the associated fire risk levels.The verification was carried out taking cultural relics and ancient buildings revitalized and utilized in a certain commercial area as an example.The results show that the instance assessment result is level II(lower risk),which aligns with the subjective as-sessment of experts.During the assessment process,three improvement measures for the cloud element model were proposed to address issues such as non-uniform dimensions of assessment indicators,inconsistent level variances,and inaccurate as-sessments at level boundary points.These measures include normalizing assessment parameters,averaging variance entropy values for different levels,and modifying correlation functions.By comparing the assessment results before and after the model modification,it has been verified that the risk assessment results are more reasonable and accurate using the improved cloud element model.