新疆卫生人力资源配置公平性及预测研究

Study on Equity and Forecasting of Health Human Resources Allocation in Xinjiang

目的探讨新疆卫生人力资源配置的公平性,预测各类卫生人员数量,为卫生主管部门制定政策提供参考。方法利用聚集度指标对2014—2018年新疆卫生人力资源配置情况进行现状分析,建立ARIMA模型预测2019—2025年卫生人力资源数量。结果新疆卫生人力资源仍然存在分布不均衡的普遍情况,卫生人才正在逐年流失,建议逐步改善卫生人力资源的公平性,ARIMA模型预测结果比较合理,预测显示医护数量不足,卫生人员结构有待全面优化。结论建议进一步完善新疆各地区卫生人力资源配置,减小区域间卫生资源差距,加大引进培养人才力度,在对医疗卫生资源宏观调控的同时,注意内部人员结构调整。

Objective To explore the equity of health human resources allocation in Xinjiang,and to forecast the number of various types of health personnel,so as to provide a reference for health authorities to formulate policies.Methods Using the concentration index,the current situation of health human resources allocation in Xinjiang from 2014 to 2018 was analyzed,and an ARIMA model was established to predict the number of healthcare workers from 2019 to 2025.Results The results showed that the uneven distribution of health human resources was a common problem in Xinjiang,and healthcare professionals were gradually leaving the field.It was suggested that the equity of health human resources allocation should be gradually improved.The prediction results of the ARIMA model were relatively reasonable,and the model predicted that there would be a shortage of medical and nursing staff and that the structure of healthcare workers needed to be comprehensively optimized.Conclusion It is recommended that health human resources allocation in all regions of Xinjiang should be further improved,that the gap in health resources between regions should be reduced,that efforts to introduce and cultivate talents should be increased,and that attention should be paid to internal personnel restructuring while the macro-regulation of healthcare resources is being carried out.