山东无棣人工增雨效果的统计检验

Statistical test of effect of artificial rainfall enhancement in Wudi,Shandong

为客观评估无棣增雨作业效果,使用1964—2023年滨州、无棣国家级基本气象站及区域气象观测站4—7月降水资料,采用序列分析、区域回归分析、区域对比分析3种统计检验方法对2014—2023年的人工增雨作业效果进行分析研究。结果表明:(1)4—7月序列分析、区域回归分析的旬平均绝对增雨量分别为7.24 mm、7.89 mm;4、5、7月序列分析通过α=0.05的显著性水平检验,4、7月区域回归分析通过α=0.05的显著性水平检验。(2)区域对比分析的作业日平均绝对增雨量为3.75 mm、平均相对增雨率为21.93%;4、6、7月通过α=0.05的显著性水平检验,5月通过α=0.10的显著性水平检验。

To objectively evaluate the effect of artificial rainfall enhancement in Wudi,Shandong,based on the precipitation data of national basic meteorological stations and regional meteorological observing stations in Binzhou and Wudi between April and July from 1964 to 2023,three statistical test methods,namely sequence analysis,regional regression analysis and regional comparative analysis,are used to analyze the effect of artificial rainfall enhancement from 2014 to 2023.The results are listed as follows.(1)The 10-d average absolute rainfall increase obtained by sequence analysis/regional regression analysis is 7.24/7.89 mm between April and July;the sequence analysis passes the significance test at the level of 0.05 in April,May and July;the regional regression analysis passes the significance test at the level of 0.05 in April and July.(2)The regional comparative analysis shows that the daily average absolute rainfall increase is 3.75 mm and the average relative rainfall increase rate is 21.93%;it passes the significance test at the level of 0.05 in April,June and July,and the level of 0.10 in May.