住房价格与养老保障水平对人口出生率的影响——基于2019~2023年我国省际面板数据的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Housing Price and Old-Age Security Level on the Birth Rate Based on Chinas Inter-Provincial Panel Data from 2019 to 2023

目的:基于孩子成本——效益理论,分析住房价格与养老保障水平对人口出生率的影响,为提高我国生育水平,推动我国人口长期均衡发展、优化人口结构提出对策建议。方法:利用2019年~2023年31个省的宏观数据,采用房价收入比和基本养老保险覆盖率作为住房价格和养老保障水平的衡量指标,通过面板固定效应模型进行实证分析,考察住房价格与养老保障水平对人口出生率的影响。结果:基准回归结果表明,作为生育成本的房价收入比(β=-0.201,P<0.001)和作为生育保障收益替代的基本养老保险覆盖率(β=-11.832,P<0.001)对人口出生率都有显著的负向影响,加入双向固定效应后的结果与基准回归结果保持一致。异质性回归结果表明,住房价格与养老保障对人口出生率的影响会因城镇化率和养老金发放标准的不同存在差异。结论:我国应当通过调控房价收入比、改革基本养老保险制度、加强正确婚恋观和家庭观引导以及均衡教育与医疗资源等措施,增大生育收益与成本之差,提高生育意愿和人口出生率。

Objective Based on the cost-benefit theory of children,to analyze the impact of housing price and old-age se-curity level on the birth rate,and put forward countermeasures and suggestions for improving the fertility level in China,promoting the long-term balanced development of Chinas population,and optimizing the population structure.Methods The empirical analy-sis was carried out through the panel fixed-effect model,based on the macro data of 31 provinces in China from 2019 to 2023.And the house-price-to-income ratio and basic endowment insurance coverage rate were used as the measurement indicators of housing price and old-age security level to investigate the impact of housing price and old-age security level on the birth rate.Results The benchmark regression results showed that the housing price-to-income ratio as a birth rate cost and the basic en-dowment insurance coverage rate as a substitute for fertility security income had a significantly negative impact on the birth rate,which were consistent with the baseline regression results after the addition of two-way fixed effects.The effects of housing price and old-age security level on the birth rate varied with the urbanization rate and pension payment standards.Conclusion It is nec-essary to enlarge the dfference between the benefits and costs of childbirth,and increase the fertility desire and the birth rate by regulating the housing price-to-income ratio,reforming the basic endowment insurance system,strengthening the guidance of the correct view of marriage and family,and balancing education and medical resources.