弥勒市生境质量时空变化及预测研究

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Habitat Quality in Mile City

为量化评估并预测生境质量对土地覆被变化的响应,综合运用InVEST模型和生态贡献指数分析评估弥勒市2000—2020年生境质量时空演化特征,在此基础上结合PLUS模型对未来土地覆被空间分布格局及生境质量进行模拟预测。结果显示:(1)2000—2020年生境质量在总体上呈现出东西两山等级较高,而西北部丘陵、中部坝区等级较低的格局,平均生境指数呈波动式变化。(2)2000—2020年研究区56.21%的区域生境质量保持稳定不变,13.58%生境质量有所改善,30.21%的局部地区生境质量退化。(3)2030—2050年生境质量呈显著下降趋势,预计2050年生境质量为差、中的区域面积将比2000年增加10.01%。分析弥勒市土地覆被及生境质量时空演变特征,预测评估未来变化趋势,可为后续推进生境质量改善和明确重点生态保护区域提供理论支撑和参考。

To quantitatively assess and predict the response of habitat quality to land cover transfer,the spatial and temporal evolution of habitat quality in Mile City from 2000 to 2020 was evaluated using the InVEST model and ecological Contribution Index analysis.Based on this evaluation,the future spatial distribution of land cover and habitat quality was simulated and predicted by integrating with the PLUS model.The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,habitat quality exhibited higher levels in the eastern and western mountains and lower levels in the northwestern hills and the central dam area,with the average habitat index showing fluctuating changes.(2)From 2000 to 2020,habitat quality in the study area remained stable in 56.21%of the area,improved in 13.58%,and degraded in 30.21%in localized regions.(3)Habitat quality has shown a significant downward trend from 2030 to 2050,and the area of land with poor and medium habitat quality is projected to increase by 10.01 percent by 2050 compared to 2000.Analyzing the spatial and temporal evolution of land cover and habitat quality in Mile City,as well as predicting and assessing future trends,could provide theoretical support and serve as a reference for the promotion of habitat quality improvement and the identification of key ecological protection areas.