城市碳抵消能力与城镇化耦合协调度水平研究——以大连市为例

Research on the Coupling Coordination Degree betweenUrban Carbon Offsetting Capacity and Urbanization:A Case Study of Dalian City

以大连市2005—2021年的数据为研究对象,通过修正能源碳排放因子,计算了大连市的城市碳汇量与能源碳排放量,并构建了城市碳抵消能力与城镇化耦合协调度模型。采用格兰杰检验和Stata因果分析进行验证,结果显示:大连市的碳汇量和能源碳排放量逐年增加,但碳汇量的增加速度远远落后于能源碳排放量,导致了该市的碳抵消能力相对较低。大连市碳抵消能力呈现出W型趋势,城市的碳抵消能力与各个城镇化指标的耦合协调度水平相对较低,基本保持在低水平耦合和失调状态;除空间城镇化外,其他城镇化指标与碳抵消能力的耦合协调度呈上升趋势,Stata因果检验表明大连市城镇化与碳抵消能力之间存在格兰杰因果关系。

Taking the data in Dalian from 2005 to 2021 as the research object,the urban carbon sink and energy carbon emissions of Dalian are calculated by adjusting the energy carbon emission factor,and a coupling coordination degree model between urban carbon offsetting capacity and urbanization is constructed.The Granger test and Stata causality analysis are used for verification,and the results show that the carbon sink and energy carbon emissions in Dalian City have been increasing year by year,but the rate of increase in carbon sink is far behind that of energy carbon emissions,resulting in a relatively low carbon offsetting capacity in the city.Dalian′s carbon offsetting capacity shows a W-shaped trend,and the coupling coordination degree between the city′s carbon offsetting capacity and various urbanization indicators is relatively low,basically maintaining a low level of coupling and imbalance;except for spatial urbanization,the coupling coordination degree between other urbanization indicators and carbon offsetting capacity is on the rise.Stata causality test shows that there is a Granger causality relationship between urbanization and carbon offsetting capacity in Dalian City.