全球价值链参与度对产业链韧性的影响——基于台湾地区制造业的实证研究

Impact of Global Value Chain Participation on Industrial Chain Resilience——An Empirical Test Based on Taiwan's region Manufacturing Industry

提升产业链韧性是维护产业安全与经济安全迫切的现实需求。如何在嵌入全球价值链体系的同时降低产业链供应链风险具有重要研究意义。基于产业链韧性内涵,构建测度体系,对1997—2021年间中国台湾制造业产业链韧性进行测算,并实证检验全球价值链参与度对其影响,研究发现:近年来多重风险交织的国际经贸环境使中国台湾制造业产业链韧性程度有所下降。对于制造业整体而言,提升全球价值链前向参与度能够显著提升产业链韧性,而后向参与度升高则会降低产业链韧性。此外,高技术行业中GVC前、后向参与度对产业链韧性的影响更明显。以上研究结论有助于把握中国台湾产业链韧性提升的正确方向,并对内地优化国际分工参与方式、推进高水平对外开放具有重要参考意义。

Based on the connotation of industrial chain resilience,a measurement system is constructed to measure the industrial chain resilience of Taiwan's region manufacturing industry during 1997-2021,and the impact of global value chain participation on it is empirically-tested.The results show that international economic and trade environment in recent years has reduced the resilience of Taiwan's region manufacturing industry chain.For Taiwan's region manufacturing industry as a whole,more participation in the high value-added links of the global value chain can significantly improve the industrial chain resilience,while increasing the GVC backward participation will reduce it.In addition,GVC forward and backward participation have more obvious effects on the industrial chain resilience in high-tech industries.These conclusions are helpful to grasp the correct direction of enhancing the resilience of Taiwan region's industrial chains and provide reference significance for Chinese mainland to optimize the participation in international division of labor and promote high-standard opening up.