气候变化下澜沧江流域径流及水电站发电能力预测

Prediction on runoff and hydropower generation capacity of Lancang River Basin under climate changes

气候变化会对流域径流和梯级电站发电能力产生重要影响。基于历史和未来气候情景数据,综合利用WACM水文模型和梯级水电站发电模型,对澜沧江下游5个梯级水电站的出入库流量变化和发电能力进行预测。结果表明:①澜沧江流域未来气温会有一定程度上升,但GFDL-CM3、GISS-E2-R-CC和IPSL-CM5A-MR 3种气候模式下的降水变化趋势不一致,分别为增加8%~24%、减少15%~45%和变幅较小(-4%~7%);②上游来水在GFDL-CM3模式下明显增加(16.15%),在GISS-E2-R-CC模式下大幅减少(-30.67%),而在IPSL-CM5A-MR模式下变化不大(-2.01%);③梯级水电站年均发电量受上游来水的影响显著,保证出力对来水减少更为敏感,当年均流量下降30.67%时,保证出力下降约80%。研究成果可为澜沧江流域应对气候变化影响的水资源和梯级电站调度管理提供参考。

Climate change significantly affects runoff in river basins and the power generation capacity of cascade hydropower stations.Using historical and future climate scenario data,the WACM hydrological model,and a cascade hydropower generation model,we predicted the changes in inflow and outflow as well as the power generation capacity of five cascade hydropower stations in the lower reaches of Lancang River.The results indicates that:①The future temperature in the Lancang River Basin will rise to some extent,but precipitation trends vary among the climate models GFDL-CM3,GISS-E2-R-CC,and IPSL-CM5A-MR,showing increases of 8%~24%,decreases of 15%~45%,and minor variability(-4%~7%),respectively.②Upstream inflow is projected to increase significantly(16.15%)under the GFDL-CM3 model,decrease substantially(-30.67%)under the GISS-E2-R-CC model,and change minimally(-2.01%)under the IPSL-CM5A-MR model.③The annual average power generation of the cascade hydropower stations is significantly influenced by upstream inflow,and guaranteed output is more sensitive to reductions in inflow.When the annual average flow decreases by 30.67%,the guaranteed output decreases by approximately 80%.These findings can provide references for water resource management and cascade hydropower station scheduling in the Lancang River Basin in response to climate variation.