高等职业教育与新质生产力耦合协调发展及时空特征分析

Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of the Coupled and Coordinated Development of Higher Vocational Education and New Quality Productive Forces

高等职业教育是加快形成新质生产力的有力支撑,新质生产力重塑高等职业教育新生态,二者存在应然的耦合逻辑关系。基于2011-2022年的省级面板数据,运用耦合协调度模型、Dagum基尼系数、莫兰指数与空间杜宾模型探究高等职业教育与新质生产力耦合协调度的时空特征与影响因素。研究发现:全国各省份的高等职业教育与新质生产力的耦合协调度均呈现稳步上升趋势,且呈现低协调等级省市多、高协调等级省市少的“金字塔”型分布格局;耦合协调度具有显著的空间正相关性,局部空间集聚类型主要为“高—高”集聚与“低—低”集聚;经济发展水平、人力资本存量及市场化水平对本地和邻地的影响均为正,对外开放程度对本地的影响为负、对邻地的影响为正,高职依赖度对本地的影响为正、对邻地的影响为负。基于此,要提升高等职业教育发展质量,推进两大系统的耦合进程;强化区域协同发展,构建优势互补的空间格局;充分发挥影响因素的积极作用,因地制宜实施发展策略。

Higher vocational education is a powerful support for accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces,and new quality productive forces reshape the new ecology of higher vocational education.There is a logical relationship between them.Based on the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2022,this paper uses the coupling coordination model,Dagum Gini coefficient,Moran index and spatial Dobbin model to explore the spatial and temporal differentiation,and influencing factors of coupling coordination between higher vocational education and new quality productivity.It is found that the coupling and coordination of higher vocational education and new quality productivity in all provinces of the country show a steady upward trend,and it shows a“pyramid”distribution pattern with high number of provinces and municipalities with low harmonization levels and few provinces and municipalities with high levels of harmonization;the coupling coordination degree has a significant spatial positive correlation,and the local spatial agglomeration types are mainly“high-high”agglomeration and“low-low”agglomeration;the level of economic development,the stock of human capital and the level of marketization have positive effects on local and neighboring areas;the degree of opening-up has a negative impact on the local area and a positive impact on neighboring areas;the dependence of higher vocational education has a positive effect on the local area and a negative effect on neighboring area.Based on this,some suggestions are put forward:improving the quality of higher vocational education development and promoting the coupling process of the two systems;strengthening regional synergistic development and building a spatial pattern of complementary advantages;giving full play to the positive role of influencing factors and implementing development strategies according to local conditions.