农业碳排放回弹及机制分析———基于农业技术进步的视角

Agricultural Carbon Emission Rebound and Mechanism Analysis:Based on the Perspective of Agricultural Technological Progress

新发展格局下,探究农业碳排放回弹效应及其影响机制对减排政策制定意义重大。利用1990—2020年中国29个省份的面板数据,采用非期望产出超效率SBM模型、GML指数分解、空间动态面板系统GMM模型,分析技术进步引致的碳排放回弹效应及其影响机制。研究发现:中国农业碳排放存在“部分回弹效应”,回弹效应均值约为0.88,表明技术进步带来的减排作用,会被回弹效应部分抵消。时间维度上,大部分年份表现出“回火效应”,表明在这些年份,技术进步反而致使农业碳排放总量增加;空间维度上,东北地区的碳排放回弹效应最大,且存在“回火效应”,西部地区回弹效应最小。机制分析发现,农业技术进步确实导致了农业碳排放回弹效应。农业技术进步通过提升农业碳排放效率直接引致回弹效应,通过促进农地经营规模扩大间接加剧回弹效应。

Under the new development pattern,exploring the rebound effect of agricultural carbon emissions and its influencing mecha-nism is of great significance to the formulation of emission reduction policies.Based on the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 1990 to 2020,this paper analyzes the rebound effect of carbon emissions caused by technological progress and its influencing mecha-nism by using the non-expected output super-efficiency SBM model,GML index decomposition,and spatial dynamic panel system GMM model.It is found that there is a"partial rebound effect"on agricultural carbon emissions in China,and the average rebound effect is 0.88,indicating that the emission reduction effect brought by technological progress will be partially offset by the rebound effect.In the time dimension,most years showed a"fire effect",indicating that technological progress led to an increase in total agri-cultural carbon emissions.In terms of spatial dimension,the rebound effect of carbon emissions in northeast China is the largest,and there is a"fire effect",while the rebound effect in Western China is the smallest.The mechanism analysis found that agricultural tech-nological progress did lead to the rebound effect of agricultural carbon emissions.The rebound effect is directly caused by improving ag-ricultural carbon emission efficiency,and indirectly aggravated by promoting the expansion of agricultural land management scale.