黄河中下游地区耐旱作物扩种的节水降碳协同效应评价

Evaluation of the Synergistic Effects of Water Conservation and Carbon Reduction in the Expansion of Drought⁃Resistant Crops in the Middle and Lower Yellow River

为应对黄河流域农业可持续发展面临的气候变化和水资源短缺挑战,通过推广种植耐旱作物,缓解区域农业用水压力,并分析其节水降碳协同效应,研究设计了趋势照常、缓慢增长、技术引导、政策扶持等不同发展情景,制定了小麦、玉米、高粱、马铃薯4种耐旱作物扩种的节水降碳协同效应分析方案;采用农业节水潜力修正模型和农业降碳潜力模型定量评估了不同情景下耐旱作物扩种的节水效应及降碳潜力。结果表明:黄河中下游地区小麦和玉米的种植面积最大,高粱和马铃薯则相对较小,在政策扶持情景下,2060年小麦、玉米、高粱、马铃薯的扩种规模分别为23.12万、17.34万、34.68万、40.45万hm^(2)。在技术引导和政策扶持情景下,黄河中下游作物的节水效应和降碳效应均显著提升,2060年该区总节水量达153.52亿m^(3)、降碳潜力的平均水平达65.93 t/km^(2)。在黄河中下游地区推广耐旱作物有助于缓解水资源短缺状况,保障区域粮食安全,实现节水降碳增收多重目标。

This paper aimed to address the challenges of climate change and water scarcity in the sustainable development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin by promoting the cultivation of drought⁃tolerant crops,thereby alleviating regional agricultural water pressure and ana⁃lyzing their water⁃saving and carbon⁃reducing synergistic effects.The study has designed different development scenarios including trend as usual,slow growth,technology⁃driven and policy⁃supported scenarios,formulating the analysis schemes for the water⁃saving and carbon⁃re⁃ducing synergistic effects of expanding the cultivation of four drought⁃tolerant crops of wheat,maize,sorghum and potato.The agricultural wa⁃ter⁃saving potential correction model and the agricultural carbon reduction potential model were utilized to quantitatively evaluate the water⁃saving effects and carbon⁃reduction potential of expanding drought⁃resistant crops under different scenarios.The results show that wheat and maize have the largest planting areas,while sorghum and potato have relatively smaller areas.Under the policy⁃supported scenario,the ex⁃pansion scale of these crops will reach to 231.2 thousand hectares(wheat),173.4 thousand hectares(maize),346.8 thousand hectares(sorghum)and 404.5 thousand hectares(potato)by 2060.In the technology⁃driven and policy⁃supported scenarios,the water⁃saving and carbon reduction effects of crops in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River will be significantly increased,the total water saving in the study area will reach to 15.35 billion cubic meters,and the average carbon reduction potential will reach to 65.93 t/km^(2) by 2060.There⁃fore,promoting drought⁃tolerant crops in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River can help alleviate water scarcity,ensure regional food security,and achieve multiple goals of water⁃saving,carbon⁃reduction and income⁃increasing.