基于AHP的干旱半干旱区丰产型文冠果优良单株选择

Selection of high-yield plus tree Xanthoceras sorbifolia in arid and semi-arid areas based on AHP

【目的】筛选适宜在干旱半干旱区栽植的丰产型文冠果优良单株,丰富区域文冠果丰产型种质资源,为特色文冠果产业发展奠定资源基础。【方法】在专家打分和田间物候观测的基础上,运用AHP(层次分析法),从生长特性、产量指标、生态适应性3个维度,产量、种仁含油量、树高、干径、冠幅、抗涝性、抗寒性、耐盐碱性、抗旱性、抗病虫害性等10个指标构建丰产单株综合评价模型,通过对评价指标两两比较,从其对筛选目标的相对重要性得出权重值,在检验一致性合理的基础上根据各指标的评分值和权重值运用公式Y=ΣW_(I)×X_(i)计算综合得分并排序,最终得出筛选结果。【结果】评价模型各矩阵的CR<0.1,均通过一致性检验,构建的判断矩阵合理。3个准则层要素权重排序为产量指标(0.6370)>生长特性(0.2583)>生态适应性(0.1047),方案层中10个要素权重排序为产量(0.5308)>冠幅生长量(0.1241)>种仁含油量(0.1062)>干径生长量(0.1047)>抗旱性(0.0449)>树高生长量(0.0294)>抗涝性(0.0227)>抗盐碱性(0.0206)>抗寒性(0.0109)>抗病虫害性(0.0057)。最终根据加权得分值将25个候选单株排序,选出了综合得分高出平均值的12个单株,确定为此次选优选出的丰产型优良单株,分别为HJ04、HJ05、HJ08、HJ09、HJ12、HJ13、HJ14、HJ17、HJ19、HJ20、HJ22、HJ23。【结论】运用AHP筛选出的干旱半干旱区文冠果丰产型优良单株各评价指标的权重比例符合筛选准则,对照连续5年的观测数据,筛选出的12个优良单株和其在生产中的实际表现是一致的,具有丰产、优质、适应性好、长势强的特性,可以用作下一步决选单株的候选株进行子代测定,为其作为干旱半干旱区丰产型良种并进一步推广繁育提供了科学依据。

【Objective】To screen the high-yield Xanthoceras sorbifolia individuals suitable for planting in arid and semi-arid areas,and to enrich the regional X.sorbifolia germplasm resources,so as to lay a resource foundation for the development of the characteristic X.sorbifolia industry.【Method】On the basis of expert grading and field phenology observation,AHP(analytic hierarchy process)was used to analyze the relationship between growth characteristics,yield index and ecological adaptability,the comprehensive evaluation model of high-yield individual plant was established by 10 indexes,including yield,seed oil content,tree height,stem diameter,crown width,waterlogging resistance,cold resistance,saline-alkali resistance,drought resistance,disease and pest resistance,etc.,by comparing the two evaluation indicators,we got the weight value from their relative importance to the screening target,on the basis of testing the consistency,the comprehensive scores were calculated and sorted by the formula Y=ΣW_(I)×X_(i)according to the score value and weight value of each index.【Result】The CR<0.1 of every matrix in the evaluation model passed the consistency test,and the judgment matrix was reasonable.The weights of the three criteria were as follows:yield index(0.6370)>growth characteristics(0.2583)>ecological adaptability(0.1047),the weight of 10 factors in the plan layer was:yield(0.5308)>crown growth(0.1241)>kernel oil content(0.1062)>stem growth(0.1047)>drought resistance(0.0449)>height growth(0.0294)>waterlogging resistance(0.0227)>salinity resistance(0.0206)>cold resistance(0.0109)>disease and insect resistance(0.0057).Finally,the 25 candidate plants were sorted according to the weighted scores,and 12 plants with the comprehensive scores higher than the average were selected,they are HJ04,HJ05,HJ08,HJ09,HJ12,HJ13,HJ14,HJ17,HJ19,HJ20,HJ22,HJ23 respectively.【Conclusion】The weight ratio of high-yield and good individual X.sorbifolia in arid and semi-arid areas was in accordance with the screening criteria,and compared with the observation data for 5 years,the selected 12 excellent individual plants were consistent with their actual performance in production,and had the characteristics of high yield,good quality,good adaptability and strong growth,it can be used as the next step to select the candidate plants for the progeny test,which provides a scientific basis for the arid and semi-arid region as a high-yield improved varieties and further to promote breeding.