考虑微地形的配电系统雨涝淹没停电风险区划分方法

Risk zone assessment of rainstorm induced waterlogging associated outage of distribution system with consideration of micro-topography

受气候变化影响,暴雨内涝近年来呈增多增强趋势。供电半径小、选址灵活性不足的配电系统易受雨涝淹没影响引发大面积故障停电。分析指出由于内涝水位缺乏详实记录,使得配电系统规划建设在内涝防护上存在基准缺失的问题。为此,参照电力系统冰灾等灾害防护方法,在二维水动力模型暴雨淹没分析基础上,研究提出考虑微地形影响的配电系统雨涝淹没停电风险区划分与差异化规划方法。首先,根据极值分布模型推算不同重现期的极值降雨,再结合地理信息进行二维水动力仿真,得到50年一遇极值降雨的淹没范围及深度图;然后,结合配电变压器和开闭所等配电终端的建设标准,设定不同淹没深度对应的停电风险,进而绘制配电系统雨涝淹没停电风险等级图,为不同风险区配电终端差异化设定基础高度,以提升雨洪灾害抗灾能力;最后,基于南宁地区数据的仿真分析验证所提方法的有效性。

Influenced by climate change,heavy rainfall and waterlogging have shown an increasing trend in recent years.The distribution system with a small power supply radius and insufficient flexibility in location selection is prone to large-scale power outages caused by waterlogging.Analysis points out that due to the lack of detailed records of waterlogging levels,there is a benchmark missing problem in the planning and construction of distribution systems in terms of waterlogging protection.Therefore,referring to disaster prevention methods such as ice disasters in power systems,and based on the analysis of storm inundation using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model,this study proposes a method for delineating and differentially planning power outage risk areas in distribution systems due to rainstorm and waterlogging,considering the impact of micro-topography.Firstly,extreme rainfall for different return periods is estimated based on the extreme value distribution model,and then combined with geographic information for two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation to obtain inundation maps,including inundation scope and depth,for extreme rainfall with a 50-year return period.Secondly,considering the construction standards of distribution terminals such as distribution transformers and switch stations,power outage risks corresponding to different inundation depths are set,and then a risk level map of power outages in the distribution system due to rainstorm and waterlogging is drawn.This provides a basis for setting different foundation heights for distribution terminals in different risk areas,enhancing their resilience to rainstorm and flood disasters. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through simulation analysis based on data from Nanning.