绿色转型政策对商业银行风险承担的影响研究——基于低碳城市试点准自然实验的证据

Research on the Impact of Green Transformation Policies on Commercial Banks’Risk-Taking:Evidence from Quasi Natural Experiments Based on Low-Carbon City Pilot Projects

在“双碳”目标和国家金融安全的背景下,评估绿色转型政策的效应对实现经济绿色低碳转型、降低系统性风险意义重大。基于2007-2021年沪深两市上市商业银行的面板数据,以低碳城市试点为准自然实验,运用多期DID模型分析绿色转型政策(低碳城市试点)对商业银行风险承担的影响及其作用机制与异质性。结果表明,低碳城市试点显著提升了商业银行风险承担,通过安慰剂检验和PSM-DID稳健性检验,结论依旧稳健。这种影响在碳排放强度和金融发展水平差异中表现出异质性。进一步分析发现,宏观审慎政策与经济政策不确定性分别强化与弱化低碳城市试点对商业银行风险承担的正向影响。研究结论为实现经济绿色低碳转型、降低系统性风险奠定了理论基础和实践参考。

Under the background of the“dual carbon”goal and national financial security,evaluating the effects of green transformation policies is of great significance for achieving economic green and low-carbon transformation and reducing systemic risks.Based on panel data of commercial banks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2007 to 2021,this paper takes the low-carbon city pilot as a quasi natural experiment,and uses a multi period DID model to analyze the impact of green transformation policies(low-carbon city pilot)on commercial banks’risk-taking,as well as its mechanism and heterogeneity.The result indicates that the green the low-carbon city pilot has significantly increased the commercial banks’risk-taking,and the conclusion remains robust through placebo testing and PSM-DID robustness testing.This impact exhibits heterogeneity in differences in carbon emission intensity and financial development level.Further analysis reveals that macro prudential policies and economic policy uncertainty respectively strengthen and weaken the positive impact of low-carbon city pilot projects on commercial banks’risk-taking.The conclusions lay a theoretical foundation and practical reference for achieving economic green and low-carbon transformation and reducing systemic risks.