绝经后女性发生骨质疏松性椎体骨折的危险因素分析及预测模型构建

Analysis of risk factors and construction of predictive models for osteoporotic vertebral fractures in postmenopausal women

目的:分析绝经后女性发生骨质疏松性椎体骨折的危险因素,并构建列线图预测模型。方法:回顾性分析170例绝经后骨质疏松女性患者的资料。采用logistic多因素回归模型筛选独立危险因素,R软件构建列线图模型。结果:年龄、BMI、糖尿病、长期使用糖皮质激素、子宫切除术史是绝经后女性发生骨质疏松性椎体骨折的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。决策曲线显示当风险阈值>0.09时,此预测模型提供额外的临床净收益。结论:本研究构建的列线图模型具有较好的预测价值,可为临床防治骨质疏松性椎体骨折提供新思路。

Objective:To analyze the risk factors of osteoporotic vertebral fractures in postmenopausal women and construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods:Data from 170 postmenopausal women with osteoporosis were retrospectively analyzed.The logistic multivariate regression model was used to screen the independent risk factors,and the nomogram model was constructed by R software.Results:Age,BMI,diabetes mellitus,long-term glucocorticoid use,and history of hysterectomy were independent risk factors for osteoporotic vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women.The decision curve showed that this predictive model could provide additional clinical net benefits when the risk threshold was greater than 0.09.Conclusion:The nomogram model constructed in this study has good predictive value and can provide new ideas for the clinical prevention and treatment of osteoporosis vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women.