养老预期会激发中老年创业吗?——基于CHARLS数据的实证研究

Do expectations of old-age support promote senior entrepreneurship?An empirical study based on CHARLS data

中老年创业在人口老龄化社会中日益普遍。文章基于预期理论视角,利用2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据探索养老预期对中老年创业选择的影响效应。研究发现,养老预期对中老年创业行为具有显著正向影响,通过稳健性检验和内生性处理后,研究结论依然存在。进一步分析表明,养老预期在主动选择情境下,通过丰富中老年心理禀赋为创业者提供心理支持,从而激发创业选择行为。养老预期对中老年创业选择的积极效应显著体现于较高养老资源禀赋群体和较浓创业氛围家庭。文章结论揭示了创业选择是个体前瞻性的决策行为,为理解中老年养老预期和创业行为提供了新视角,同时为创新创业政策的落实和经济高质量增长提供了理论支撑。

There is a larger growing number of middle-aged and elderly workers among entrepreneurs inaging society.Based on the perspective of expectation theory,the 2018 Chinese Health and Retirement Data is adopted to examine the effect of the expectations of old-age support on senior entrepreneurship.Results show there exits positive relation between the expectations of old-aging and senior entrepreneurship.After employing robustness test and controlling for potential endogeneity issues,this influence is still positive.Further analysis shows that the expectations of old-age support have positive effect on entrepreneurial activities via improving mental endowment in the context of active decision-making.And this positive effect between the expectations of old-age support and senior entrepreneurship is only significant among middle-aged and elderly workers,who have high level of endowment resources and stronger entrepreneurial familyatmosphere.The conclusion reveals that entrepreneurship is a forward-looking decision-making behavior of individuals.This not only provides a new perspective for understanding the expectations of old-age support and senior entrepreneurship,but also provides theoretical support the implementation of innovation and entrepreneurship policies and high-quality economic development.