安徽县域耕地非粮化时空格局演变及影响因素研究

Study on Spatio-temporal Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of Non-grain Cultivated Land at County Level in Anhui Province

耕地非粮化研究,对耕地保护与合理使用具有重要意义。结合1998—2022年的相关数据,利用空间分析与数理统计法分析安徽县域耕地非粮化的时空格局演变及影响因素。结果表明:安徽全省和皖北、皖中、皖南的非粮化率都呈现下降趋势;县域耕地非粮化类型具有“一增一减两稳定”的空间演化特征,空间范围变动明显,低度非粮化、中度非粮化占比较大;县域非粮化率区域差异明显并具有高值与低值集聚的空间依赖特征;影响因素存在显著区域差异,按影响力由大及小依次为人均耕地面积>城镇化率>农业从业人口比例>坡度>有效灌溉率。应采取加强耕地用途管理,强化政府监管与市场引导,因地制宜提升粮食产能等措施以防止耕地非粮化倾向,有效稳定粮食生产。

The study of non-grain cultivated land is of great significance to the protection and rational use of cultivated land.Based on the relevant data from 1998 to 2022,the spatio-temporal pattern evolution and influencing factors of non-grain cultivated land in Anhui counties were analyzed by using spatial analysis and mathematical statistics.The results showed that,the non-grain rate of the whole province and the north,middle and south of Anhui province all showed a downward trend;the nongrain type of cultivated land at county level had the spatial evolution characteristics of one increase,one decrease and two stability,and the spatial range changed significantly,with a large proportion of low and moderate non-grain;there were significant regional differences and local spatial agglomeration characteristics of non-grain rate in the county,which were high value and low value agglomeration.There were significant differences in the influencing factors in different regions,and the order of influence from big to small was per capita cultivated land area>urbanization rate>proportion of agricultural employment population>slope>proportion of effective irrigation.In order to prevent the non-grain tendency of cultivated land and effectively stabilize grain production,measures should be taken to strengthen the management of cultivated land use,strengthen government supervision and market guidance,and improve grain production capacity according to local conditions.