户籍地房价对人口流动的阻滞效应研究——基于CLDS2016调查数据的分析

A Study on the Deterrent Effect of House Prices at the Place of Domicile on Population Flow:The Analysis Based on CLDS2016 Survey Data

高房价和人口流动是萦绕中国城镇化进程中的两个重要问题,也是城镇化后半程实现城镇化高质量发展亟需关注的政策着力点。本文从户籍地房价入手,利用2016年CLDS调查数据,使用Probit模型从个体层面考察了户籍地房价对流动人口跨省流动决策的影响。研究发现,户籍地房价越高,流动人口跨省流动的意愿越低,户籍地房价对流动人口跨省流动决策存在阻滞效应。相较于沿海区域和城市人口,户籍地高房价对内陆区域和农村户籍人口的跨省流动阻滞效应更强。根据研究结果,本文得出应当从优化房地产市场调控政策、扩大流动人口公共服务覆盖面、提升农村转移人口技能素质三个角度提高城镇化发展质量。

High house prices and population mobility are two important issues that haunt China s urbanization process,and they are also policy focus points that need urgent attention in the second half of urbanization to achieve high-quality development of urbanization.This paper examines the impact of domicile house price on the decision-making of cross-provincial mobility of the mobile population at the individual level by using the Probit model with the data from the 2016 CLDS survey.It is found that the higher the house price of the domicile,the lower the willingness of the mobile population to move across provinces,and the house price of the domicile has a deterrent effect on the decision of the mobile population to move across provinces.Compared with the coastal region and urban population,high domicile house prices have a stronger effect on cross-provincial mobility of the inland region and rural household population.Based on the results of the study,this paper argues that the quality of urbanization development should be improved from three perspectives:optimizing the real estate market control policy,expanding the coverage of public services for the migrant population,and upgrading the skill quality of the rural transfer population.