暴雨-滑坡灾害链应急能力评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例

Emergency capability assessment of the rainstorm-landslide disaster chain:Taking the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example

为量化灾害链应急能力评估中灾害间的链式传递效应,通过叠加(折减)效应系数量化灾害间的链式传递关系,基于灾害链之间的转换概率、阈值,推导灾害链应急能力评价模型和计算方法。综合考虑应急准备能力和响应恢复能力双维度指标,构建暴雨-滑坡灾害链应急能力评估指标体系。运用熵权法、逼近理想排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)计算暴雨和滑坡2种单一灾种的应急能力指数,结合灾害链应急能力评价模型计算得到暴雨-滑坡灾害链应急能力,以粤港澳大湾区典型暴雨-滑坡灾害链为例展开实证分析。研究结果表明:粤港澳大湾区中部地区暴雨-滑坡灾害链应急能力与滑坡单一灾害的应急能力相比呈下降趋势,东部地区整体呈上升趋势,西北部地区和西南部地区暴雨-滑坡灾害链应急能力与滑坡单一灾害的应急能力基本保持一致。最终得到的暴雨-滑坡灾害链应急能力评估结果更加科学合理,可为暴雨-滑坡灾害链应急能力评估与提升提供技术支撑。

To quantify the chain transmission effect between disasters in assessing the emergency capacity of the disaster chain,the chain transmission relationship between disasters is quantified by superimposing(decrement)effect coefficients.The evaluation model and calculation method of emergency capacity of disaster chain are derived based on the conversion probability and threshold between disaster chains.Considering the two-dimensional emergency preparedness and recovery indicators,an index system of emergency capability assessment of the rainstorm-landslide disaster chain is constructed.Using the entropy weight method and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)method,the emergency capacity index of two single disasters,rainstorms and landslides,is calculated.The emergency capacity of the rainstorm-landslide disaster chain is obtained by combining it with the emergency capacity evaluation model of the disaster chain.An actual analysis is carried out of the typical rainstorm-landslide disaster chain in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.The results show that the emergency capability of the rainstorm-landslide disaster chain in the central Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area shows a downward trend compared to the single landslide disaster.In contrast,the overall emergency capability of the eastern region shows an upward trend.The emergency capability of the rainstorm-landslide disaster chain in the northwest and southwest regions is consistent with that of the single landslide disaster.The results of the emergency response capability assessment of the rainstorm-landslide disaster chain are more scientific and reasonable,which can provide technical support for the assessment and improvement of the emergency response capacity of the rainstorm-landslide disaster chain.