地震灾害下两阶段多目标应急避难救援策略研究

Two-stage multi-objective emergency evacuation and rescue strategy under earthquake disasters

为了系统化应急避难救援活动,并不断完善应急避难场所救援功能和提高灾后物资供应效率,以地震灾害为现实背景,综合灾前准备和灾后响应两阶段,通过多准则决策方法评价应急避难场所服务质量。构建以最小化总救援成本期望值、总受灾群众疏散距离和总物资运输距离以及最大化应急避难服务质量、总物资需求满足率为目标的两阶段决策模型。以2013年雅安地震为背景,验证两阶段决策模型的有效性,完成应急避难场所和属地众储点预选址以及应急物资预储工作,确定灾后不同类型紧急避难场所位置并对需求点动态分配应急物资。研究结果表明,灾前配置的应急避难资源为震后展开避难救援活动奠定基础,加快灾后响应速度和提高工作质量,体现对避难人员救援的重视并起到受灾群众生命安全保障的重要作用。

In order to systematize emergency shelter and rescue activities,continuously improve the rescue functions of emergency shelters,and enhance the efficiency of post-disaster material supplies,a multi-criteria decision-making method was used to evaluate the quality of emergency shelter services,taking earthquake disasters as a realistic background and considering both pre-disaster preparation and post-disaster response stages.A two-stage decision-making model was constructed with the objectives of minimizing the expected value of total rescue cost,total evacuee evacuation distance and total material transportation distance,and maximizing the emergency shelter service quality and the total material demand satisfaction rate.The effectiveness of the two-stage decision-making model was validated using the 2013 Ya’an earthquake as a background,and the pre-selection of emergency shelter locations and local mass storage sites,and the emergency material pre-storage work were completed.The locations of different types of emergency shelters were determined,and post-disaster and emergency materials were dynamically allocated to demand points.The research results show that pre-disaster allocation of emergency shelter resources lays the foundation for post-disaster shelter and rescue activities,accelerating the response speed after the disaster,improving the quality of work,and reflecting the importance attached to the rescue of sheltered persons,playing a crucial role in ensuring the safety of disaster-affected populations.