基于SPEI指数的辽宁省玉米干旱特征分析

Characteristics Analysis of Droughts for Maize in Liaoning Province Based on SPEI

基于1961—2020年辽宁省24个国家级气象台站逐日观测数据,根据SPEI的计算、Mann-Kendall法、小波分析法,采用灰色关联度分析方法,对辽宁省玉米不同生长阶段标准降水蒸散指数(SPEI)进行了定量评价,并进行比较全面的分析。结果表明,从玉米全生育期来看,近60 a降水量总体变化趋势并不显著,与SPEI呈显著正相关;辽宁省玉米生长期平均气温与SPEI呈负相关;玉米全生育期SPEI在时间上均呈上升趋势;从整体来看,在干旱站次比方面辽宁省的玉米生产并没有全域性干旱现象。

In the context of global warming,frequent drought events have hit regional agricultural production hard.Exploring the climate change and drought characteristics of maize during the growth period will help prevent the direct damage caused by drought and other disasters to maize.Based on the daily observation data of 24 national meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 1961 to 2020,the SPEI at different growth stages in Liaoning Province was quantitatively evaluated and comprehensively analyzed according to the calculation of SPEI,based on the Mann-Kendall method,wavelet analysis method,and gray correlation analysis method.The results showed that the overall trend of precipitation in the past 60 years was not significant from the perspective of the whole growth period of maize,but was significantly positively correlated with SPEI.The average temperature of maize during the growing period was negatively correlated with SPEI.The SPEI of maize showed an upward trend in time during the whole growth period.On the whole,there was no global drought during the growth period of maize in Liaoning Province in terms of drought station ratio.