生产率冲击、生育率下降与经济增长

Productivity Shock,Decline in Fertility Rate and Economic Growth

为全面系统地研究生产率冲击与生育率、经济增长的关系,在Barro和Becker 1989年提出的生育率模型中引入生产率冲击,探究并模拟检验生产率冲击对生育率、物质资本投资、人力资本投资、消费及劳动供给的影响。研究结果表明,在生产率正向冲击推动下,人力资本投资对经济增长的正向影响可以抵消生育率下降对经济增长的负向影响。研究还发现,尽管生产率冲击增加了抚养孩子的机会成本,降低了家庭生育率,但是却提高了女性劳动参与率,可以弥补生育率下降给经济增长带来的负向影响。在此基础上,进一步探究了中国公共养老金制度下生产率冲击经由生育率下降对代际收入分配和经济福利的影响。

In order to systematically study the relationships among productivity shock,reproduction and economic growth,the article introduces productivity shock into the fertility rate model proposed by Barro and Becker(1989)to explore and make simulation test on the impact of productivity shock on fertility rate,physical capital investment,human capital investment,consumption and labor supply.The results show that driven by positive productivity shock,the positive impact of human capital investment on economic growth can offset the negative impact of decline in fertility rate on economic growth.In addition,the study also finds that although productivity shock increases the opportunity cost of raising children and reduces family fertility rate,it increases the labor force participation rate of females,which can make up for the negative impact of fertility rate decline on economic growth.On this basis,the paper further explores the impact of productivity shock on intergenerational income distribution and economic welfare through the decline of fertility rate under the public pension system of China.