减税降费与居民收入增长:效应评估与机制分析

Tax Cuts,Fee Reduction and Income Growth:Effect Assessment and Mechanism Analysis

减税降费已经成为中国实施积极财政政策的重要举措,其能否有效促进居民收入的增长是衡量政策成败的关键。鉴于此,以宏观税负作为评估减税降费政策效果的切入点,基于2007—2022年省级面板数据,系统检验了减税降费政策的居民增收效应,并挖掘其中的作用机制。研究发现:减税降费在短期能够有效促进整体居民收入水平的增长,但农村居民的增收效应并不显著,并且难以产生持久的增收效应;从异质性分析来看,在中西部地区以及中低收入群体中,减税降费的增收效应更为显著,地方政府财政支出强度将显著弱化增收效果,财政收支政策间的协同性不足;从机制检验来看,推动经济增长、新增就业岗位以及提高工资水平是减税降费促进居民收入增长的关键作用渠道。为此,减税降费政策实施过程中应及时关注城乡居民收入差距的变化,并进一步增强减税降费政策的精准性与协同性。

Tax and fee reduction has become an important measure to implement the proactive fiscal policy in China,and whether it can effectively promote the income growth of residents is the key to measure the success or failure of the policy.Therefore,the article takes the macro-tax burden as the entry point to evaluate the effect of the policy of cutting taxes and fees.Based on the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2022,the article systematically tests the effect of the policy on the income growth of residents,and explores the mechanism of action.Research shows that tax cut and fee reduction policy can effectively promote the overall income growth of the resident in the short term,but the income increase effect of rural residents is not significant,and it is difficult to produce lasting income increase effect.From the perspective of heterogeneity analysis,in central and western regions and the middle and low-income groups,the income increase effect of the tax cut and fee reduction policy is more significant.Fiscal expenditure intensity of local government will significantly weaken the income increase effect,and the synergy between fiscal revenue and expenditure policies is insufficient.Mechanism test shows that promoting economic growth,creating new jobs and raising income levels are key channels for tax cut and fee reduction to promote income growth of residents.Therefore,immediate attention should be paid on the income gap changes between urban and rural residents in the implementation of the tax cut and fee reduction policy,and the precision and synergy of the policy should be further enhanced.