均衡性转移支付不确定性与县域基本公共服务供给

The Uncertainty of Equilibrium Transfer Payment and the Supply of Basic Public Service at County Level

均衡性转移支付作为县级财力重要来源,其制度平稳运行影响着基本公共服务均等化目标能否实现。基于均衡性转移支付在层层分解下达过程中规模和时间不确定性的特征事实,分析这一不确定性如何影响县域公共服务供给水平,进一步利用2015—2021年西部Y省40个县(市、区)的面板数据进行实证检验。研究发现:均衡性转移支付不确定性抑制了县域基本公共服务供给水平提升,且时间不确定性的负向作用要大于规模不确定性,工具变量法证明了这一结论的稳健性;机制分析表明:均衡性转移支付不确定性改变了地方政府支出的优先次序,不利于县域基本公共服务供给水平提升;拓展性分析显示:地方官员更替会进一步放大均衡性转移支付不确定性对基本公共服务供给的负向效应。研究结论不仅为认识均衡性转移支付不确定性提供了经验证据,同时对完善均衡性转移支付制度提供了新的思路。

Equilibrium transfer paymentis a significant source of financial resources at the county level,and the effective operation of it is crucial for achieving the goal of equalization of basic public services.Based on the fact that equilibrium transfer payment is characterized by scale and time uncertainties in the process of decomposition and distribution,the article analyzes the impact of the uncertainties on the supply of basic public service at county level.An empirical test is made by using the panel data of 40 counties(cities and districts)in western province Y from 2015 to 2021.The study finds that the uncertainties of equilibrium transfer payment inhibit the improvement of the supply of basic public service at county level,and the negative effect of time uncertainty is greater than that of the scale uncertainty.Instrumental variables approach proves the robustness of this finding.Mechanism analysis shows that the uncertainty of equilibrium transfer payment changes the priorities of local government expenditures,which is not conducive to the improvement of the supply of basic public service provision in counties.Expansive analysis shows that local official turnover further amplifies the negative effect of the uncertaintyof equilibrium transfer payment on the supply of basic public service.The findings of this paper not only provide empirical evidence for understanding the uncertainty of equilibrium transfer payment,but also provide new ideas for improving the system ofequilibrium transfer payment.