全球价值链地位与经济韧性——基于省级面板数据的研究

Global Value Chain Positioning and Economic Resilience:Research based on provincial panel data

基于2013-2022年省级面板数据,在测算全球价值链地位指数和经济韧性水平基础上,分析了全球价值链地位变动对经济韧性的影响。研究发现:全球价值链地位攀升可以增强经济韧性,经过稳健性检验和内生性检验后结论依然成立。异质性分析发现,资源配置效率较高地区全球价值链地位攀升对经济韧性增强的促进作用更显著。中介效应检验发现,全球价值链地位攀升通过提高竞争优势而提升经济韧性的“促进竞争效应”是有效的;调节效应检验发现,研发和人力资本水平均可以增强全球价值链地位对经济韧性的影响,“罗伯津斯基效应”是有效的。门槛效应检验表明,对外开放度对经济韧性的影响存在门槛效应,对外部过度依赖反倒不利于增强经济韧性。

Based on the panel data of the provincial level from 2013 to 2022,this paper calculates the index of global value chain status and the level of economic resilience,and analyzes the impact of global value chain status changes on economic resilience.The study finds that the rise of global value chain status can enhance economic resilience,and the conclusion still holds after robustness and endogeneity tests.The heterogeneity analysis shows that areas with higher resource allocation efficiency see a more significant enhancement in economic resilience from the rise of global value chain status.The mediating effect test shows that the"promoting compettion effect"through raising competitive advantage by rising global value chain status is effective.The moderating effect test shows that R&D and human capital levels can enhance the impact of global value chain status on economic resilience,validating the"Robazinski Effect",The threshold effect test indicates that the impact of openness on economic resilience has a threshold effect,with excessive external dependence being detrimental to enhancing economic resilience.