人工智能武器化与网络威慑战略的未来

Weaponization of Artificial Intelligence and Future of Cyber Deterrence Strategy

网络威慑是国家为应对网络空间风险和威胁而采取的战略。冷战时期核威慑路径难以有效复制至网络空间,各国战略界依据网络空间特质而推行的“定制式威慑”也遭遇各类掣肘,网络空间随之长期面临“威慑困境”。人工智能技术的发展在网络空间塑造了新的威胁与风险,其武器化态势也逐步推动网络安全领域的变革。随着相关技术持续融入网络空间安全体系,具有进攻者优势的网络空间重新具备了迈向攻防平衡的可能性,从而为威慑战略在网络空间的重新适用提供了理论契机。在由人工智能驱动的网络空间攻防平衡状态下,国家将利用拒止与惩罚两种威慑框架应对网络威胁;而在趋向网络攻防平衡的过程中,国家倾向于采取跨域威慑、纠缠威慑和去合法化威慑等方式应对不同层面的网络安全威胁。人工智能技术的武器化为网络威慑提供了新的可能性,但官僚主义、溯源政治与国际治理缺失等人为问题将长期阻碍网络空间攻防平衡状态的达成。

Nations embrace cyber deterrence strategy to deal with risks and threats in cyberspace.However,the pathway of nuclear deterrence navigated in the Cold War era is hard to be effectively replicated in the realm of cyberspace,and the Tailored Deterrence Strategy(TDS)promoted by various nations based on the characteristics of cyberspace has also encountered many kinds of constraints,thus ending up in a long-term“deterrence dilemma”in cyberspace.The advancement of artificial intelligence technology has created new threats and risks in cyberspace and its weaponization is driving changes in cyber offensive and defensive capabilities of actors.With the integration of related technologies into the cybersecurity system,the offensive dominance in cyberspace will move towards the offensive-defensive balance,which provides a theoretical opportunity for the reapplication of deterrence strategy in cyberspace.With the offensive-defensive balance in cyberspace driven by AI,nations will follow the logic of deterrence both by denial and by punishment to address cyber threats.Meanwhile,within this process,nations are inclined to adopt cross-domain deterrence,deterrence by entanglement,and deterrence by de-legitimization to deal with cyber threats at different levels.The weaponization of artificial intelligence technology offers new possibilities for cyber deterrence,but man-made problems such as bureaucracy,attribution politics and lack of international governance will continue to undermine efforts to achieve offensive-defensive balance in cyberspace.