耕地宜机化对中国丘陵山区非粮化的影响

The effect of farmland suitability for agricultural machineryoperation on non-grain conversion in hilly and mountainareas of China

【目的】在中国丘陵山区非粮化趋势加剧的背景下,探究耕地宜机化对中国丘陵山区非粮化缓解的影响机制并实证测度其具体影响程度,这对于保障国内粮食安全具有重要的现实意义。【方法】本文构建基于利润最大化约束的农户生产决策模型并进行机理推导,同时采用双栏模型等实证方法,运用2020年5—7月农业农村部农业机械化管理司组织的全国丘陵山区农业机械化调查数据,从地块规模、耕地平整度以及机耕道通达度3个具体指标来度量耕地宜机化程度,实证测度耕地宜机化对中国丘陵山区非粮化的缓解效应。【结果】①在劳动力成本快速上升、粮食作物机械化技术成熟而非粮作物机械化技术发展滞后的背景下,耕地宜机化程度的提升可以有效降低农户的非粮化程度。②耕地宜机化程度的提升降低非粮化程度的传导路径是:耕地宜机化程度提升降低了农机要素价格,农户选择提升农业综合机械化水平,用价格更低的农机要素来替代劳动力,在非粮作物机械化技术尚不成熟的现实背景下,农户更倾向于选择种植粮食作物,进而降低了非粮化程度。③耕地宜机化对非粮化的影响存在规模异质性,即相比小农户,耕地宜机化程度对种植大户的非粮化程度影响更为显著。【结论】整体看,耕地宜机化有效降低了粮食生产的农机使用成本,促进了粮食生产的劳动力替代和降本,有助于缓解中国丘陵山区非粮化问题,进而保障粮食安全。

[Objective]In the background of the increasing trend of non-grain production in hilly and mountainous areas of China,it is of great practical significance to explore the mechanism of the farmland suitability for agricultural machinery operation(FSAM)on the mitigation of non-grain production and empirically measure its specific impact degree.[Methods]This paper constructed farmer’s production decision-making model,which based on profit maximization constraints,and derived the influence mechanism.This paper used the national agricultural mechanization survey data organized by the Agricultural Mechanization Management Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs from May to July 2020,measured the degree of FSAM from three perspectives of plot size,plot flatness and plot accessibility,to empirically measure the mitigation degree of FSAM to non-grain production in hilly and mountainous areas of China.[Results]It is found that:(1)Against the backdrop of rapidly rising labor costs,mature mechanization technology for grain crops,and lagging mechanization technology for non-grain crops,enhancing FSAM can effectively reduce the degree of non-grain farming among farmers.(2)The transmission path for reducing the degree of non-grain farming through improving FSAM is as follows:Enhanced FSAM lowers the price of agricultural machinery factors,prompting farmers to increase the level of agricultural mechanization for replacing labor with cheaper agricultural machinery factors.Given the immaturity of mechanization technology for non-grain crops,farmers opt to plant more grain crops,thereby reducing the degree of non-grain farming.(3)There exists scale heterogeneity in the impact of FSAM on non-grain farming,meaning that compared to small-scale farmers,the degree of farmland suitability for mechanization has a more significant impact on the degree of non-grain farming among large-scale farmers.[Conclusion]On the whole,the high degree of FSAM operations can effectively reduces the cost of agricultural machinery in grain production,promotes labor substitution and cost reduction in grain production,and helps to alleviate the problem of non-grain production in hill and mountain areas of China,and thus ensures food security.