石化和化工行业CO_(2)排放量预测及情景分析

A Prediction and Scenario Analysis of CO_(2)Emissions in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industries:A Case Study of Xuzhou in Northern Jiangsu Province

为了摸清江苏省徐州市石化和化工行业CO_(2)排放量情况,采用TAPIO脱钩模型分析了徐州市石化和化工行业CO_(2)排放量与经济增长之间的关系,借助STIRPAT模型选取城镇化率、碳排放强度和能源强度等6个变量构建了徐州市石化和化工行业CO_(2)排放量预测模型,分析预测了2023-2030年不同情景下CO_(2)排放量情况.结果表明:1995-2022年徐州市石化和化工行业CO_(2)排放量处于52.83~1224.99万t.其中,化学原料及化学制品制造业和石油煤炭及其燃料加工业CO_(2)排放总量占石化和化工行业CO_(2)排放总量的81.38%~98.20%.徐州市经济发展与石化和化工行业CO_(2)排放量的脱钩状态主要经历两个阶段:第一阶段以扩张负脱钩为主,表现为粗放型经济发展模式;第二阶段以强脱钩为主,表现为高质量经济发展模式.基准情景下,徐州市石化和化工行业2030年CO_(2)排放量为631.96万t,低碳情景下,2030年CO_(2)排放量为507.81万t,强化低碳情景下,2030年CO_(2)排放量为412.36万t.同时,指出了徐州市石化和化工行业CO_(2)减排路径可立足于区域政策调控、能源结构优化、化工产品和技术升级等方面.

Inorder to gain insight into the CO_(2)emissions of the petrochemical and chemical industries in Xuzhou of Jiangsu Province,the TAPIO decoupling model was employed to examine the interrelationship between CO_(2)emissions and economic growth within the aforementioned industries.The STIRPAT model was employed to select six variables,including the urbanization rate,carbon emission intensity,and energy intensity,to construct a CO_(2)emission prediction model for predicting CO_(2)emissions under different scenarios from 2023 to 2030.The findings indicate that between 1995 and 2022,the CO_(2)emissions from the petrochemical and chemical industries in Xuzhou ranged from 0.5283 to 12.2499 million tons.Among them,the total CO_(2)emissions from the chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry,as well as the petroleum coal and fuel processing industry,accounted for 81.38%to 98.20%of the total emissions.The decoupling of Xuzhou′s economic development from the CO_(2)emissions of the petrochemical and chemical industry has undergone two principal phases.The initial phase is characterized by expansive negative decoupling,as evidenced by an extensive economic development model.The subsequent phase emphasizes robust decoupling,as exemplified by a high-quality economic development model.Under the baseline scenario,the CO_(2)emissions from the petrochemical and chemical industries in Xuzhou in 2030 are projected to reach 6.3196 million tons.In contrast,under the low-carbon scenario,the number is 5.0781 million tons,while under the strengthened low-carbon scenario,it is 4.1236 million tons.Moreover,it is emphasized that the trajectory of CO_(2)emissions reduction in the petrochemical and chemical industries in Xuzhou can be anchored in regional policy regulation,energy structure and chemical process optimization.