基于LEAP模型的鄂尔多斯市低碳发展路径

Low-carbon Development Path of Ordos Based on LEAP Model

为确定鄂尔多斯市的低碳发展路径,基于LEAP模型,构建了基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景这3种情景,对鄂尔多斯市2020~2050年的能源需求和碳排放进行了预测,分析了各种政策举措对于降低碳排放的贡献.结果表明,强化低碳情景下,鄂尔多斯市的能源需求量在2025年达到峰值5200万t,2050年下降到4000万t;碳排放量在2025年达到峰值16300万t,2050年下降到1600万t,较2020年降低88%.就减排贡献而言,对比基准情景和强化低碳情景,可再生能源发电装机量增加、终端用能的能耗降低和终端电气化率提高分别贡献了43%、25%和24%的减排量.鄂尔多斯市应当大力发展可再生能源,充分利用丰富的风光资源禀赋;同时,推进经济转型,逐步提高产业结构中高附加值低耗能产业的比重.对于电力部门,调整发电结构,对现有火电厂进行改造,使用零碳、低碳发电技术取代传统火力发电;对于工业和交通部门,提高终端电气化率、降低能耗强度.

To determine the low-carbon development path of Ordos,three scenarios(baseline scenario,low carbon scenario,and enhanced low carbon scenario)were constructed based on the LEAP model to forecast the energy demand and carbon emission in Ordos from 2020 to 2050 and to analyze the contribution of various policy initiatives to reduce carbon emission.The results showed that under the enhanced low carbon scenario,the energy demand in Ordos peaked at 52 million tons of standard coal equivalent in 2025 and decreased to 40 million tons of standard coal equivalent in 2050,and carbon emissions peaked at 163 million tons in 2025 and decreased to 16 million tons in 2050,which was 88%lower than that in 2020.Regarding emission reduction contribution,comparing the baseline scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario,the increase in renewable energy power generation installation,the reduction in energy consumption of terminal energy use,and the increase in terminal electrification rate contributed to the emission reductions of 43%,25%,and 24%,respectively.The Ordos should vigorously develop renewable energy and make full use of the rich endowment of wind and light resources;at the same time,it should promote economic transformation and gradually increase the proportion of high-value-added and low-energy-consuming industries in the industrial structure.For the power sector,the power generation structure should be adjusted.Traditional thermal power generation should be replaced by zero-carbon and low-carbon power generation technologies.For the industrial and transportation sectors,the terminal electrification rate should be increased,and the energy intensity should be reduced.