新质生产力影响产业升级的理论逻辑与组态路径:基于省级动态面板的QCA分析

Theoretical Logic of New-quality Productivity Affecting the Industrial Upgrading and its Configuration Approaches:A Dynamic QCA Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data

新质生产力是驱动产业升级,构建现代化产业体系的重要着力点。对新质生产力“先进科学技术、新介质劳动资料、高素质劳动者、新料质劳动对象”4个维度的7要素联动影响产业升级的逻辑进行理论分析。采用动态QCA分析法,基于我国2011—2022年30个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,结合理论框架,探究新质生产力要素影响产业升级的组态路径。研究发现:新质生产力多要素联动匹配才能影响地区产业升级;以先进科学技术为核心存在条件,有“数字化基础设施—人力结构高级化—新料质产业”驱动型、“人力结构高级化—新料质产业”驱动型、“新介质劳动资料—高端人力规模”驱动型三类产业升级的路径;以先进科学技术为核心缺失条件,有“新介质劳动资料—绿色经济”缺失型、“新质工具和设备—人力结构高级化”缺失型、“高素质劳动者—新料质产业”缺失型三类非产业升级的路径;部分时间点,组态的组间一致性受外部环境冲击有所波动,且各组态地区差异化明显,驱动产业升级的组态案例主要分布在东部地区,而非产业升级的组态案例主要分布在西部地区。研究结果为新质生产力多要素联动匹配促进产业升级提供了理论支撑和政策借鉴。

New-quality productivity is an important leverage to drive the industrial upgrading and build a modern industrial system.This paper makes a theoretical analysis of the logic of the linkage of seven factors of new-quality productivity in the four dimensions of“advanced science and technology,new-media means of labor,high-quality workers and new-material objects of labor”affecting the industrial upgrading.Using the dynamic QCA analysis method and the relevant theoretical framework and adopting the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)in China from 2012 to 2022,the paper explores the configuration approaches for the factors of new-quality productivity affecting the industrial upgrading.It has the following conclusions:Only the matched linkage of multiple factors of new-quality productivity can affect the regional industrial upgrading.With advanced science and technology as the core condition,there are three approaches for the industrial upgrading driven by new-quality productivity:“digital infrastructure─advanced HR structure─new-material industry”,“advanced HR structure─new-material industry”,and“new-media means of labor─large high-end human resources”.With the missing core conditions of advanced science and technology,there are three types leading to the non-industrial upgrading:“the type of deficiency in new-media means of labor─green economy”,“the type of deficiency in new-quality tools and equipment─deficiency in the advanced HR structure”,and“the type of deficiency in high-quality workers─deficiency in new-material industry”.The time points and consistency of configurations are somewhat fluctuational due to the external environments,and the configurations are quite different in different regions.The configuration cases of driving the industrial upgrading are mainly in the eastern region of China while the configuration cases of non-industrial upgrading are mainly in the western region of China.The research conclusions provide some theoretical support and policy enlightenment for the matched linkage of multi-factors of new-quality productivity to promote the industrial upgrading.