失业何以影响中国城镇家庭消费?

How will Unemployment Affect Household Consumption in Urban China?

基于2004—2014年的月度频率中国城镇住户调查,文章评估了失业冲击对中国城镇家庭消费的影响,以及各类消费保险机制的相对重要性。结果显示:第一,在遭遇失业冲击的6个月内家庭收入平均下降25%,但是消费仅下降了6%,说明城镇家庭的自我保险较好地应对了失业冲击。第二,200多项消费支出项目中,饮食服务、交通通信、医疗和耐用品下降最为显著,可以解释消费降幅的94%。第三,失业保险等社会保障以及改革开放以来经济高速增长所积累的家庭财富对消费平滑发挥了重要作用,而亲友或银行借贷、配偶劳动供给等影响较小。需要指出的是,尽管失业对家庭消费支出的短期影响较小,但鉴于失业保险金的领取期限最长为24个月,且家庭储蓄等资源会逐渐消耗,因此仍需高度重视并防范家庭长期失业的风险。

Based on the monthly frequency survey of urban households in China from2004 to 2014,this paper evaluates the impact of unemployment shocks on urban household consumption,as well as the relative importance of various consumption insurance mechanisms.The results show that:First,within the six months of encountering unemployment shocks,household income declines by an average of 25%,while consumption only falls by 6%,indicating that urban households are able to provide more effective insurance against unemployment shocks.Second,among over 200 categories of consumption expenditure,the most significant decreases are observed in food services,transportation and communication,medical care,and durable goods,accounting for 94%of the total reduction in consumption.Third,social security such as unemployment insurance,as well as the wealth accumulated by the rapid economic growth since the reform and opening up,have played an important role in smoothing consumption.In contrast,the contributions of mechanisms such as borrowing from relatives and friends or banks,and the labor supply from spouses,are relatively minor.This paper has clear policy implications:First,it is recommended to refine the incentive mechanisms of the unemployment insurance system to ensure a positive correlation between contributions and benefits.For pension and medical insurance,the larger the contribution base before retirement(illness),the greater the pension(or reimbursement amount)received after retirement(illness).In contrast,the standard for unemployment insurance benefits should not exceed the local minimum wage standard.This asymmetry in the right-obligation relationship may dampen the enthusiasm of employees to participate in unemployment insurance.Second,there is a need to increase the protection for lowskilled workers.Individuals with lower skills,who often work in the informal sector,face higher unemployment risks and are less likely to be covered by social security,so addressing this gap should be considered a priority for future reforms.Third,accurately identifying changes in the consumption patterns of unemployed families is crucial for targeted enhancement of their welfare.Unemployed families tend to reduce their spending on food services and transportation and communication due to decreased social activities and work-related outings,but these changes have a limited impact on family welfare.Therefore,policymakers should pay more attention to changes in medical and durable goods consumption,and support in these areas has a more significant role in improving the quality of life of unemployed families.