劳动力流动对城市工资与福利的影响——基于空间均衡模型的分析

The Impact of Migration on Urban Wage and Welfare:An Analysis based on Spatial Equilibrium Model

本文构建了包含劳动力异质性与集聚外部性的空间均衡模型,利用2005年、2015年人口抽样调查数据进行参数估计和反事实分析,考察劳动力流动对城市工资与福利的影响。研究表明:①农村流动人口一方面为城市经济带来集聚效应,另一方面对城市低(高)技能劳动力产生替代(互补)效应,导致城市低技能工资水平微弱下降,高技能工资水平明显上升;②人口流入促进城市住房成本上涨及房屋所有者租金收入增加,使城市居民总体福利水平提升,但低技能租房者的福利受损;③农村人口因迁移到高工资的城市地区而获得明显福利改善;④总体而言,2005—2015年城乡迁移成本下降促使全国福利提升4%~5%。因此,继续推进城乡人口迁移有利于改善社会福利,但应根据人口流动方向合理配置土地和住房资源,以减少部分城市人口的福利损失。

This paper examines the impacts of migration on urban wage and welfare by building a spatial equilibrium model with labor heterogeneity and agglomeration externality,and conducting parameter estimation and counterfactual analysis based on the population sample survey data in 2005 and 2015.The study finds that,firstly,rural migrants generate agglomeration externalities in urban labor market and have substitution(complementary)effects on low-skilled(high-skilled)urban workers,leading to a slight decline in urban low-skilled wage,and a sig-nificant rise in urban high-skilled wage.Secondly,population inflow drives up urban housing cost as well as rental income of house owners,and results in overall welfare gains for urban resi-dents,but welfare losses for urban low-skilled renters.Thirdly,rural population benefits greatly from access to higher wages in cities.Overall,the reduction in rural-urban migration cost from 2005 to 2015 increase national welfare by 4%-5%.Therefore,further rural-urban migration will improve social welfare,but land and housing resources should be allocated according to the di-rection of population flow so as to reduce the welfare loss of certain urban population.