城市出口扩张与个体婚育行为

Export Expansion of Chinese Cities and Individuals'Marriage and Childbearing Behavior

本文利用外国进口需求来刻画中国城市的出口扩张,再基于中国家庭收入调查数据和中国人口普查1%随机抽样数据,考察了城市出口扩张对个体婚育行为的影响。结果表明,城市出口扩张显著降低了个体结婚和生育的发生比,导致婚育水平下降。分样本检验的结果表明,出口扩张导致的婚育水平下降在经济发展水平和教育发展水平较高的东中部地区的个体以及女性、中低学历、初婚年龄及高收入个体中更为显著。机制分析结果表明,个体经济实力的增强,尤其是女性经济实力的增强及个体婚育观念的转变,是造成上述结果的重要渠道。

Using the exogenous import demand from foreign countries to characterize the export expansion of Chinese cities,this study adopts the data from China Household Income Project and IPUMS to examine the impact of export expansion of Chinese cities on individual marital and fertility behaviors.The results show that export expansion significantly reduces the odds of marriage and fertility,causing the married individuals and fertilized individuals to decrease.Besides,the results are more obvious for individuals in eastern and central cities with more prosperous economy and better development of education,as well as females,lower educated,women aged 20-34 and men aged 22-36,and the high-income individuals.The mechanism tests show that the improvement of economic strength,especially for women,and the transformation of individual attitudes towards marriage and childbirth are important channels through which growth in export opportunities leads to poor marriage and childbearing performance of individuals.