基于可拓云模型的中小型水库溃坝后果评价

Dam Failure Consequences Evaluation of Small and Medium-sized Reservoirs Based on Extendable Cloud Model

水库溃坝会对人民生命财产安全和周边环境造成严重威胁。当前水库溃坝后果评价具有模糊性、随机性,溃坝后果评价的方法主观性强,不能较好反映评价目标的真实情况。基于此将云模型的不确定性推理与可拓物元理论的定性定量分析的优点相融合,构建基于可拓云的溃坝后果综合评价模型。将溃坝后果1级评价指标4个(人员生命损失、经济损失、生态环境影响和社会影响)2级指标22个作为溃坝后果评价的指标体系,划分5个安全等级(轻微、一般、较严重、严重和极其严重),构建模型进行指标隶属度计算。结果表明:该溃坝后果综合评价模型可以直观、清晰地得出评价指标对应的安全等级,更准确地判断水库溃坝后果的严重程度。工程实例计算也验证了该方法的有效性和适用性。

The occurrence of dam failures in small and medium-sized reservoirs in our country caused by excessive floods for heavy rain was frequent,which will cause a serious threat to the people's lives and property and the surround-ing environment.The evaluation of dam failure consequences has characteristics such as fuzziness and randomness.The main methods of dam failure assessment was highly subjective,which cannot reflect the comprehensive level of e-valuation objectives.Therefore,the advantages of the uncertainty inference of the cloud model with the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the extensible matter-element theory were combined to construct a comprehensive evaluation model for the consequences of dam failure in this paper.The effectiveness and applicability for the extendable cloud model were tested through engineering example,which will provide reference for scientific evaluation of the severity of dam failure consequences.