基于气象因素预测心脑血管病发病风险及其与发病率的关联分析

Predicting the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases based on meteorological factors and the analysis of its correlation with incidence rates

目的基于气象因素预测心脑血管病发病风险及其与发病率的关联分析。方法采用2017—2022年兴义市心脑血管发病数据作为研究对象,根据发病人数的累积概率的25%、50%、75%和95%分位数划分发病风险等级,依托气象因素与心脑血管病发病风险的关系展开研究。结果心脑血管病发病率和气温、水汽压、气压、相对湿度具有显著相关性,和气温、水汽压呈负相关,其中与日最低气温的相关系数最高-0.504(P<0.05),与气压、相对湿度呈正相关;森林模型在预测心脑血管病发病风险上表现最优,综合评分为0.851;相对风险RR值分析发现,气象因素暴露水平对心脑血管病的发病存在滞后性关联,气温降幅超过11℃和气压上升高于8hPa可显著增加发病风险。结论揭示了心脑血管病发病率与气温、水汽压、气压和相对湿度有显著的相关性,并通过机器模型有效预测了心脑血管病的发病风险,发现极端气象条件显著提高了发病风险,为公共卫生干预提供了气象风险评估依据,强调了在极端气候变化背景下采取预防措施的重要性。

Objective Based on meteorological factors,the prediction of the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases(CVD)and the analysis of its correlation with the incidence rate.Methods The research utilizes six years of data on CVD incidence from Xingyi,from 2017 to 2022,as the subject of study.The incidence risk levels are categorized based on the 25%,50%,75%,and 95%quantiles of the cumulative probability of the number of cases.The study is conducted based on the relationship between meteorological factors and the risk of incidence of CVD.Results The incidence of CVD shows a significant correlation with temperature,vapor pressure,atmospheric pressure,and relative humidity.It is negatively correlated with temperature and vapor pressure,among which the correlation with the daily minimum temperature is the highest at-0.504(P<0.05),and positively correlated with atmospheric pressure and relative humidity.Meteorological factors that have a significant correlation with the incidence rate are selected as input factors for the machine prediction model.It was found that the random forest model performs best in predicting the risk of incidence of CVD,with a comprehensive score of 0.851.Analysis of Relative Risk(RR)values found that there is a lagged association between exposure levels to meteorological fac-tors and the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.A temperature drop of more than 11℃and an increase in atmospheric pressure of more than 8 hPa can significantly increase the risk of incidence.Conclusion The study revealed significant correlations between the incidence of CVD and meteorological parameters including temperature,water vapor pressure,atmospheric pressure,and relative humidity.Utilizing machine learning models,the research effectively predicted the risk of these diseases,uncovering that extreme weather conditions significantly elevate the risk of incidence.These findings provide a basis for meteorological risk assessment in public health interventions,emphasizing the importance of taking preventative measures in the context of extreme climate changes.