近30年黄河陆上三角洲蚀退-淤进对气候变化和人类活动的响应

Response of Yellow River subaerial delta erosion and accretion to climate change and human activities in the past 30 years

近30年来,受全球气候变化和流域人类活动加剧的影响,黄河三角洲陆地蚀退-淤进过程对黄河流域水循环系统的响应变得更为显著。基于谷歌地球引擎(Google Earth Engine)和长时间序列的Landsat影像,结合流域内气象水文长期测量数据,定量研究了近30年黄河陆上三角洲蚀退-淤进对气候变化和人类活动的响应。研究发现,1993—2022年间,黄河三角洲陆地面积经历了先增加后减少再波动增加的阶段,现行河口岸段为主要淤积区,陆地面积每年增长约1.67 km^(2),刁口河岸段为主要侵蚀区,陆地面积每年减少约2.15 km^(2);入海水沙与河口面积变化在1993—2001年自然水沙输运时期存在周期为4~5 a的负相位关系;多元回归分析表明,自然水沙输运时期(1993—2001年)气候变化主导了河口蚀退-淤进,人工水沙调控时期(2002—2022年)人类活动的影响远大于气候变化。

In the past 30 years,affected by global climate change and intensified human activities in the basin,the response of the Yellow River Delta land erosion-accretion process to the water circulation system of the Yellow River Basin has become more significant.Based on Google Earth Engine and long-term series of Landsat images,combined with long-term meteorological and hydrological measurement data in the basin,this research quantitatively studies the response of the Yellow River subaerial delta erosion and accretion to climate change and human activities in the past 30 years.The research found that in the 30 years from 1993 to 2022,the land area of the Yellow River Delta experienced a stage of first increasing,then decreasing and then fluctuating increase.The current river mouth bank section is the main accretion area,and the land area increases by about 1.67 km^(2)per year.The Diaokou river bank section is the main erosion area.area,the land area decreases by about 2.15 km^(2)per year;there is a negative phase relationship with a period of 4~5 years between the changes in sediment loads and river mouth area during the natural water and sediment transport period(1993-2001);multiple regression analysis shows that the natural water and sediment during the period(1993-2001),climate change dominated the erosion and accretion of the river mouth.During the artificial Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme period(2002-2022),the impact of human activities was far greater than climate change.