基于灰色模型的土地利用与生态环境耦合规律分析与动态预测——以宝鸡市为例

Analysis and Dynamic Prediction of Coupling Law between Land Use and Ecological Environment Based on Grey Model——Taking Baoji City as an Example

灰色模型具有数据需求少、精度高、运算简便、适用范围广和预测效果好等优点,而GM(1,1)模型是目前应用最广的灰色模型。以宝鸡市为例,建立评估指标体系,利用GM(1,1)模型分析研究区2005-2020年土地利用与生态环境的耦合协调度,预测2021-2025年二者的耦合协调度。结果表明,2005-2020年,宝鸡市土地利用与生态环境的耦合协调度呈上升趋势,耦合协调类型从中度失调逐步转向良好协调。经预测,2021-2025年,宝鸡市土地利用综合指数和生态环境综合指数呈不断上升趋势,前者依然高于后者,但生态环境发展滞后。研究结果有助于明确区域土地利用和生态环境的耦合规律,为推进区域高质量发展的科学决策提供重要支撑。

The grey model has the advantages of low data requirements,high accuracy,simple operation,wide applicability,and good prediction performance,and the GM(1,1)model is currently the most widely used grey model.Taking Baoji city as an example,the evaluation index system is established,and the GM(1,1)model is used to analyze the coupling coordination between land use and ecological environment in the study area from 2005 to 2020,and the coupling coordination between the two is predicted from 2021 to 2025.The results indicate that from 2005 to 2020,the coupling coordination degree between land use and ecological environment in Baoji city showed an upward trend,and the type of coupling coordination gradually shifted from moderate imbalance to good coordination.According to predictions,from 2021 to 2025,the comprehensive index of land use and ecological environment in Baoji city will continue to rise,with the former still higher than the latter,but the development of ecological environment lags behind.The research results help clarify the coupling law between regional land use and ecological environment,thus providing important support for scientific decision-making to promote high-quality regional development.