服务贸易是“稳就业”的新引擎吗?——来自服务贸易创新发展试点的证据

Is Service Trade a New Engine for“Stabilizing Employment”:Evidence from Pilot Zone of Innovative Development of Service Trade

将服务贸易创新发展试点作为服务贸易发展的准自然实验,利用2007—2021年中国285个地级及以上城市面板数据,考察服务贸易发展对劳动力就业规模与就业结构的因果效应。研究发现:服务贸易创新发展试点建设能显著扩大就业规模,并优化产业层面与技能层面的就业结构。在克服内生性问题、排除异质性处理效应、控制城市特征与自由贸易试验区政策等一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。机制检验表明,服务贸易发展能通过出口增长、创业活跃度提升与劳动力流动渠道对就业规模产生影响,并通过产业结构高级化与技术创新等途径对就业结构产生影响。异质性分析发现,服务贸易创新试点政策的就业效应在行政等级更高、地理区位更具优势、经济发展与数字经济发展水平更高的城市更为明显。空间效应分析表明,服务贸易创新发展试点政策的就业效应具有空间溢出效应。研究结论为利用服务贸易高质量发展促进“稳就业”提供了重要的政策启示。

Based on panel data from 285 cities at prefecture level and above in China from 2007 to 2021,the paper uses the pilot zone of innovative development of trade in services as a quasi-natural experiment for the development of trade in services to examine the causal effect of the development of trade in services on the scale of labor employment and employment structure.The results show that the pilot construction of innovative development of trade in services can significantly expand the scale of employment and optimize the employment structure at the industrial and skill levels.After a series of robustness tests such as overcoming endogenous problems,eliminating heterogeneity treatment effects,and controlling urban characteristics and free trade pilot zone policies,this conclusion is still valid.Mechanism testing indicates that the development of service trade can have an impact on employment scale through export growth,increased entrepreneurial activity and labor mobility channels,and can also affect employment structure through advanced industrial structure and technological innovation.Heterogeneity analysis manifests that the employment effect of service trade innovation pilot policies is more obvious in cities with higher administrative levels,more advantageous geographical locations,and higher levels of economic development and digital economy development.Spatial effect analysis shows that the employment effect of the pilot policy for innovative development of trade in services has spatial spillover effects.The conclusion provides important policy implications for promoting“stable employment”through the high-quality development of service trade.