1573-1643年多因素背景下华北地区粮食安全问题研究

A Study of Food Security in North China in a Multifactorial Context From 1573 to 1643

粮食安全事关国计民生和社会稳定,是一个永恒的课题。以粮食安全为切入点,利用1573—1643年华北地区发生的与粮食生产相关的灾害、耕作条件、人口、屯田、田赋、粮食贸易等资料,采用统计分析法,透过影响粮食生产的现象,揭示粮食安全的本质。研究表明,粮食安全是自然生态系统与社会经济系统的纽带,以动态平衡维系二者的关系。粮食安全与气候变化具有因果关系,气候变化引发的灾害链,造成了粮食生产供给的不确定性,防灾减灾是粮食安全的安全阀;耕地条件与农业人口是粮食生产的根本,起到稳定器的作用;粮食贸易能够调节粮食供需平衡,稳定粮食价格,起着调节器的功能。

Food security is an eternal issue concerning national livelihood and social stability.Taking food security as a starting point,based on information on disasters related to food production,farming conditions,population,cantonment,agricultural land tax,food prices,food trade and other data occurring in North China from 1573 to 1643,and by adopting statistical analysis,the essence of food security is revealed through food production process in the paper.The study shows that food security is the link between natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems,with dynamic equilibrium maintaining the relationship between the two.Food security is causally related to climate change,and the chain of disasters triggered by climate change creates uncertainty in food production and supply,so disaster prevention and mitigation is the safety valve for food security;arable land conditions and agricultural population are the basis of food production and play the role of stabilizer;and trade in food can regulate the balance between food supply and demand,stabilize food prices and play the function of regulator.