经济政策不确定性、企业生命周期与企业投资“脱实向虚”

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Firm Life Cycle and Enterprise Investment“Shifting from Real to Virtual”

经济政策不确定性主要通过“激励效应”和“约束效应”两个方面影响企业的投资行为,本文结合企业生命周期理论,实证检验经济政策不确定性对企业投资总量和金融投资行为的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性对企业投资总量有抑制作用,对企业金融投资有刺激作用,说明经济政策的不确定是引起企业投资“脱实向虚”的重要原因。考虑到企业生命周期差异,经济政策不确定性上升时,成长期企业投资总量下降最多,其次为成熟期企业,最后为衰退期企业;经济政策不确定性上升时,衰退期企业金融投资上升最多,其次为成长期企业,最后为成熟期企业。

Economic policy uncertainty primarily affects corporate investment through“incentive effect”and“constraint effect”.By using the firm life cycle theory,this paper empirically tests the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the total investment and financial investment.The results show that economic policy uncertainty has a restraining effect on the total investment and a stimulating effect on financial investment,which indicating that economic policy uncertainty is an important cause of the“from the real to the virtual”of corporate investment.When economic policy uncertainty rises,the total investment of growth-stage firms decrease the most,followed by mature-stage firms,and then declining-stage firms.For financial investment,when economic policy uncertainty rises,the declining-stage firms increase the most,followed by growth-stage firms,and then mature-stage firms.