人口增长与收缩视角下江苏省县域发展的空间分异特征及其演化机制研究

Spatial Differentiation and Evolution Mechanism of County-level Development in Jiangsu Province from the Perspective of Population Growth and Contraction

受长三角一体化深入推进与人口集聚流动特征变化的影响,江苏省县域发展开始突破传统梯度格局,呈现更加复杂多元的路径分化特征。文章回溯了江苏省县域发展的“三次迭代”历程,提出不同阶段中产业功能与人口流动动态匹配的逻辑主线。在此基础上,以人口变化为标定,揭示了江苏省县域发展存在的优势地区“再增长”“收缩中的逆增长”等新现象,进而识别了“入圈式”增长、“融网式”增长、“调整型”收缩和“穿孔型”逆增长等特殊机制。最后,结合上述机制的实践经验,从产业发展引导、土地资源配置、财税政策设定等角度提出适配增长与收缩的发展对策与建议。

The integration of the Yangtze River Delta region and shifts in population concentration and movement have spurred a transformation in the traditional patterns of county-level development in Jiangsu Province.And it has led to a more intricate and multifaceted trajectory of differentiation.This article retraces the'three iterations'of county-level development in Jiangsu Province and presents the logical threads of the dynamic alignment between industrial function and population mobility across different stages.On this foundation,the article exposes the emergence of two novel phenomena:the'regrowth of advantageous areas'and the'reverse growth amidst contraction'.These revelations stem from an analysis grounded in population change data in Jiangsu Province.Furthermore,the article identifies distinct mechanisms:'integrating into a metropolitan area''integrating into a regional network''adjusting contraction'and'perforating counter-growth'.Ultimately,drawing on the practical experiences of these mechanisms,the article offers recommendations for aligning growth and contraction strategies from the angles of industrial development guidance,land resource allocation,and fiscal policy formulation.